Europa Conference League · resolved market
RC Celta de Vigo vs. Olympique Lyonnais: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7dc31ca17230a987a66b2221b519a64b6ef2a047919f91e795db5bfc68c40a9d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,710
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,710 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 5c | 3,136$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.15 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Over | 19c | 1,248$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.66 | 74 | 17.6%13 W · 61 L | -7.6wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa266…67f7backed Over | 26c | 384.62$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6619…703ebacked Under | 76c | 317.02$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.02 | 54 | 64.8%35 W · 19 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ca…0d75backed Over | 26c | 230.77$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…f1ccbacked Over | 27c | 185.19$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 152 | 24.3%37 W · 115 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Under | 75c | 127.57$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.89 | 218 | 35.8%78 W · 140 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Over | 20c | 124.95$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 116 | 43.1%50 W · 66 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked Over | 30c | 103.33$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 92 | 22.8%21 W · 71 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 94 | 43.6%41 W · 53 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf845…f3a8backed Over | 26c | 94.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 42cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdaf9…1646backed Over | 19c | 84.21$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -3.2wins | -0.20per pick | 51cpaid | -47%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1430…a753backed Over | 25c | 79.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x252f…4f62backed Over | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 48 | 18.8%9 W · 39 L | -8.4wins | -0.18per pick | 36cpaid | -63%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x858e…a4abbacked Over | 27c | 55.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe824…65b4backed Under | 74c | 51.5$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.39 | 71 | 56.3%40 W · 31 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2060…9186backed Over | 20c | 50.45$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | -4.0wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Under | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 154 | 59.1%91 W · 63 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16fe…9496backed Over | 26c | 46.15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 97 | 40.2%39 W · 58 L | -5.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 74c | 43.39$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.34 | 382 | 47.1%180 W · 202 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf450…9817backed Under | 74c | 40.54$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Over | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 379 | 26.1%99 W · 280 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb51f…b7dbbacked Under | 76c | 39.47$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.47 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…99f7backed Under | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69ee…6e35backed Under | 73c | 19.5$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.17 | 168 | 56.5%95 W · 73 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe930…919cbacked Under | 79c | 19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 76cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Under | 73c | 18.26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.93 | 741 | 55.9%414 W · 327 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35e4…5946backed Under | 75c | 13.68$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.42 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +56%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- RC Celta de Vigo vs. Olympique Lyonnais: O/U 3.5this page
- RC Celta de Vigo vs. Olympique Lyonnais: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- RC Celta de Vigo vs. Olympique Lyonnais: O/U 1.5Over won
- RC Celta de Vigo vs. Olympique Lyonnais: O/U 2.5Under won
- RC Celta de Vigo vs. Olympique Lyonnais: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Olympique Lyonnais (-1.5)RC Celta de Vigo won
- Spread: RC Celta de Vigo (-1.5)Olympique Lyonnais won
- Spread: RC Celta de Vigo (-2.5)Olympique Lyonnais won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.