Europa Conference League · resolved market
RC Celta de Vigo vs. Olympique Lyonnais: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xffec2103f9dd3a3596f2b9ceab6303a244a9d31a2e0e9f9dfcb880af636283e2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,190
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,190 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 43c | 11,968$5,130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,129.75 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05e3…4b87backed Over | 45c | 5,116$2,302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,813.8 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1414…ae7bbacked Over | 56c | 2,000$1,120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$880 | 27 | 81.5%22 W · 5 L | +3.1wins | +0.12per pick | 70cpaid | +15%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x13a1…d9bcbacked Over | 76c | 1,726$1,313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$412.71 | 100 | 61%61 W · 39 L | +8.3wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 35c | 1,633$573 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$572.85 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Under | 25c | 1,600$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 433 | 44.6%193 W · 240 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fef…5946backed Over | 75c | 1,600$1,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Under | 22c | 1,474$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.26 | 218 | 35.8%78 W · 140 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…d4bfbacked Over | 70c | 1,428$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$428.4 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.16per pick | 62cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 72c | 1,413$1,024 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$388.62 | 382 | 47.1%180 W · 202 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Over | 58c | 649.74$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.8 | 74 | 17.6%13 W · 61 L | -7.6wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6619…703ebacked Over | 73c | 410.96$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.96 | 54 | 64.8%35 W · 19 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82eb…9287backed Over | 73c | 387.1$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.52 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.8wins | +0.31per pick | 58cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under | 27c | 359.04$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.94 | 880 | 48.2%424 W · 456 L | +17.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5dc4…99adbacked Under | 28c | 357.44$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +50.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 42c | 353.97$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.44 | 522 | 43.9%229 W · 293 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Under | 30c | 338.46$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.43 | 116 | 43.1%50 W · 66 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe48c…163abacked Over | 60c | 333.42$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.42 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…1c79backed Over | 73c | 331.51$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.51 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed Under | 45c | 300$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3248…8ba9backed Over | 53c | 260$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.15 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 50c | 235.78$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.02 | 384 | 53.1%204 W · 180 L | +11.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafc4…daa1backed Under | 11c | 235$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.85 | 23 | 8.7%2 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x172d…6f3ebacked Over | 47c | 220$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.6 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -3.6wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Over | 73c | 200$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 200 | 56.5%113 W · 87 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2109…55bfbacked Over | 46c | 199.98$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.99 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaea0…0decbacked Over | 73c | 195$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.35 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +3.5wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0273…1867backed Under | 29c | 172.41$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0666…d31abacked Over | 62c | 161.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.82 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5db…f982backed Under | 29c | 137.45$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.86 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +5.3wins | +0.13per pick | 38cpaid | +46.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4a0c…0852backed Over | 73c | 136.99$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.99 | 23 | 73.9%17 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 64cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8e82…86f6backed Over | 75c | 133.32$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 67cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Over | 71c | 133.01$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.57 | 180 | 49.4%89 W · 91 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a81…a86bbacked Over | 72c | 131.87$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.87 | 147 | 67.3%99 W · 48 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 20c | 125.35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.17 | 638 | 57.2%365 W · 273 L | +35.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8c30…0ac6backed Over | 59c | 123.17$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.5 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 60cpaid | -14%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3fc8…6875backed Under | 41c | 120.73$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e0f…c18cbacked Under | 28c | 110.71$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.15per pick | 32cpaid | +60.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb51f…b7dbbacked Under | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0dc4…e31bbacked Over | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 71c | 99.99$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 133 | 37.6%50 W · 83 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Over | 77c | 94.19$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.61 | 77 | 51.9%40 W · 37 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf26f…8f93backed Under | 15c | 88.04$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.64 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66bf…0488backed Under | 44c | 87.68$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…30fcbacked Under | 46c | 80.24$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x418b…a741backed Over | 63c | 79.37$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.37 | 80 | 62.5%50 W · 30 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a73…c2e5backed Over | 70c | 79.24$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.66 | 48 | 62.5%30 W · 18 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f2…d2e3backed Over | 74c | 75.68$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.68 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Under | 38c | 69.18$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.36 | 179 | 56.4%101 W · 78 L | +13.4wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x423f…4fa8backed Over | 73c | 68.56$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8bb…d88fbacked Over | 73c | 68.49$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.49 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 64cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6481…b1bfbacked Over | 73c | 68.49$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.49 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x445c…c4f1backed Over | 73c | 68.49$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.49 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 63cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f6…8160backed Over | 56c | 66.49$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.48 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4177…a2b4backed Over | 48c | 62.68$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.68 | 61 | 36.1%22 W · 39 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -16%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb329…2a8cbacked Under | 21c | 61.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.92 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…7fc1backed Over | 41c | 55.89$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.98 | 78 | 42.3%33 W · 45 L | -5.2wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b894backed Over | 59c | 51.1$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.1 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2127…37f2backed Over | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Over | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 154 | 59.1%91 W · 63 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2463…f5b5backed Over | 58c | 49.98$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.99 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Over | 63c | 46.77$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.48 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Over | 63c | 45.38$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.72 | 149 | 63.1%94 W · 55 L | +8.7wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Under | 30c | 43.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.85 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed Over | 40c | 43.23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.91 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +59.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe824…65b4backed Under | 27c | 37.65$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 71 | 56.3%40 W · 31 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x604e…f1cdbacked Over | 73c | 36$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.72 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…f948backed Over | 72c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 70cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9867…bc76backed Over | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.21per pick | 64cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b1f…4eebbacked Over | 72c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccac…022bbacked Over | 50c | 28.28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +102%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb226…4469backed Under | 48c | 27.85$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.37 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa64e…5d27backed Over | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x252f…4f62backed Over | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 48 | 18.8%9 W · 39 L | -8.4wins | -0.18per pick | 36cpaid | -63%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x2b78…c6b5backed Under | 61c | 21.6$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.12 | 70 | 55.7%39 W · 31 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42e0…fbb1backed Over | 73c | 20.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.55 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.27per pick | 70cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1755…a572backed Over | 73c | 18.8$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.08 | 48 | 60.4%29 W · 19 L | -4.0wins | -0.08per pick | 69cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1985…8cbdbacked Over | 59c | 18.73$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.73 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.29per pick | 51cpaid | +46.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1813…4dfebacked Over | 74c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.42 | 172 | 49.4%85 W · 87 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfacd…d470backed Over | 70c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 23 | 73.9%17 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a94…769cbacked Over | 73c | 13.84$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.74 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -3.4wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- RC Celta de Vigo vs. Olympique Lyonnais: O/U 1.5this page
- RC Celta de Vigo vs. Olympique Lyonnais: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- RC Celta de Vigo vs. Olympique Lyonnais: O/U 2.5Under won
- RC Celta de Vigo vs. Olympique Lyonnais: O/U 3.5Under won
- RC Celta de Vigo vs. Olympique Lyonnais: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Olympique Lyonnais (-1.5)RC Celta de Vigo won
- Spread: RC Celta de Vigo (-1.5)Olympique Lyonnais won
- Spread: RC Celta de Vigo (-2.5)Olympique Lyonnais won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.