Bundesliga · resolved market
Karlsruher SC vs. SpVgg Greuther Fürth: Both Teams to Score
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7dcf92b1373230c83089b3851a9bd38035c706dd7f81dc18674c9dedffa4d71f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,140
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,140 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb6d0…9b55backed Yes | 66c | 6,413$4,220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,192.97 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 33c | 5,658$1,874 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,873.87 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 35c | 1,362$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480.16 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8dec…60c2backed No | 37c | 494.07$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.9 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x49ca…5944backed Yes | 72c | 416.67$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.67 | 90 | 67.8%61 W · 29 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9a…a9a8backed Yes | 62c | 411.28$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.28 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed No | 28c | 303.32$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.58 | 817 | 32.8%268 W · 549 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x068b…2106backed Yes | 65c | 177.1$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.1 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 68c | 167.88$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.6 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1813…4dfebacked No | 37c | 157.47$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.81 | 183 | 53%97 W · 86 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e2a…a58dbacked No | 37c | 86.17$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.04 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5339…9da3backed Yes | 63c | 80$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.6 | 70 | 67.1%47 W · 23 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb71…434dbacked Yes | 63c | 79.37$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.37 | 52 | 61.5%32 W · 20 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2206…ae92backed Yes | 68c | 73.61$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.62 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 47cpaid | +50.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e08…19cabacked Yes | 80c | 60$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 35 | 71.4%25 W · 10 L | +3.5wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5eb6backed No | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -50%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc770…8dbbbacked Yes | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 108 | 64.8%70 W · 38 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b7d…866bbacked Yes | 63c | 47.62$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.62 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed No | 37c | 46.25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.11 | 147 | 34.7%51 W · 96 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…d370backed No | 38c | 42.97$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.25 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Yes | 68c | 41.83$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.39 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked No | 36c | 35.44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 100 | 26%26 W · 74 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6134…c8ccbacked Yes | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 52 | 67.3%35 W · 17 L | +4.6wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +17%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdf18…af99backed Yes | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 41 | 70.7%29 W · 12 L | +6.1wins | +0.15per pick | 56cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8a…1fb3backed Yes | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 80 | 56.3%45 W · 35 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x380c…1099backed Yes | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 130 | 73.1%95 W · 35 L | +9.9wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x16fe…9496backed Yes | 63c | 23.81$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.81 | 158 | 54.4%86 W · 72 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee45…e055backed Yes | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 49 | 59.2%29 W · 20 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Karlsruher SC vs. SpVgg Greuther Fürth: Both Teams to Scorethis page
- Karlsruher SC vs. SpVgg Greuther Fürth: O/U 1.5Over won
- Karlsruher SC vs. SpVgg Greuther Fürth: O/U 2.5Over won
- Karlsruher SC vs. SpVgg Greuther Fürth: O/U 3.5Over won
- Karlsruher SC vs. SpVgg Greuther Fürth: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: SpVgg Greuther Fürth (-1.5)Karlsruher SC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.