Bundesliga · resolved market
Karlsruher SC vs. SpVgg Greuther Fürth: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfefdb40e549414b788afb3f1fb320f800e77b5e0946b582d2b7930fcbf60c2e3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $62,319
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $62,319 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb6d0…9b55backed Over | 67c | 15,857$10,610 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,246.8 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 44c | 6,308$2,777 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,776.56 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 37c | 3,526$1,309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,309.2 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 29c | 3,487$1,005 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,004.53 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 36c | 2,709$988 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$987.76 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddd5…ec9ebacked Under | 43c | 1,192$512 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$512.48 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 26c | 1,188$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.17 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9a…a9a8backed Over | 61c | 922.84$562 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360.64 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Under | 30c | 687.01$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.73 | 100 | 26%26 W · 74 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5773…ac11backed Under | 37c | 600$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222 | 311 | 45%140 W · 171 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49ca…5944backed Over | 61c | 491.8$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.8 | 90 | 67.8%61 W · 29 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfe6…49f8backed Over | 53c | 339.91$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.76 | 221 | 57%126 W · 95 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed Over | 61c | 325$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.78 | 82 | 48.8%40 W · 42 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Over | 80c | 312$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.4 | 550 | 58.7%323 W · 227 L | +23.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Under | 36c | 290.41$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.83 | 147 | 34.7%51 W · 96 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4306…618abacked Over | 62c | 285.48$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.48 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c8…023abacked Over | 50c | 250$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +3.1wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +43.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 39c | 249.67$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.74 | 636 | 45.1%287 W · 349 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Over | 61c | 200$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 170 | 55.3%94 W · 76 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x172d…6f3ebacked Over | 58c | 193$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.06 | 90 | 62.2%56 W · 34 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 39c | 167.43$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.02 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf800…bdbabacked Under | 37c | 150$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.5 | 115 | 43.5%50 W · 65 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…e5a5backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 118 | 57.6%68 W · 50 L | +15.7wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8dec…60c2backed Under | 18c | 98.72$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.77 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc52f…d64abacked Over | 52c | 95$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.75 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.37per pick | 47cpaid | +95%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…11a2backed Over | 61c | 88.61$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.56 | 190 | 55.3%105 W · 85 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…16c5backed Over | 61c | 81.97$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.97 | 94 | 47.9%45 W · 49 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under | 39c | 81.97$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.97 | 481 | 46.4%223 W · 258 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54e1…9de8backed Under | 61c | 80.25$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.95 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…3c70backed Over | 73c | 71.32$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.26 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e72…54f0backed Under | 38c | 65.07$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.73 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb18c…df51backed Over | 48c | 62.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 106 | 48.1%51 W · 55 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…d370backed Under | 40c | 60$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x380c…1099backed Over | 69c | 57.7$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 130 | 73.1%95 W · 35 L | +9.9wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a4…5e83backed Over | 62c | 55.66$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.15 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e41…36f2backed Over | 61c | 54$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.06 | 52 | 67.3%35 W · 17 L | +5.7wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +24%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8776…f2efbacked Over | 57c | 52.63$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.63 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5eb6backed Under | 40c | 50.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.25 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -50%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc770…8dbbbacked Over | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 108 | 64.8%70 W · 38 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6af…b5efbacked Over | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 61 | 47.5%29 W · 32 L | -8.5wins | -0.14per pick | 62cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Under | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 145 | 39.3%57 W · 88 L | -9.6wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 66c | 49.41$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 160 | 56.9%91 W · 69 L | +13.3wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Under | 39c | 41.71$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.3 | 306 | 47.1%144 W · 162 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2206…ae92backed Over | 44c | 40.91$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.91 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 47cpaid | +50.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5339…9da3backed Over | 79c | 37.97$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.97 | 70 | 67.1%47 W · 23 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc86…7e77backed Under | 41c | 33.75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.83 | 70 | 50%35 W · 35 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03f5…3047backed Over | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 88 | 63.6%56 W · 32 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8a…1fb3backed Over | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 80 | 56.3%45 W · 35 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb63a…7637backed Over | 62c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 63 | 69.8%44 W · 19 L | +4.7wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x48e2…e3e7backed Over | 61c | 29.61$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x661a…6178backed Under | 40c | 28.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb01d…46f0backed Under | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +5.5wins | +0.29per pick | 34cpaid | +101.4%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 59c | 19.85$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.14 | 332 | 44.6%148 W · 184 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67f2…c640backed Over | 61c | 18.26$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -18%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafaf…572dbacked Over | 66c | 16.67$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +4.2wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Karlsruher SC vs. SpVgg Greuther Fürth: O/U 2.5this page
- Karlsruher SC vs. SpVgg Greuther Fürth: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Karlsruher SC vs. SpVgg Greuther Fürth: O/U 1.5Over won
- Karlsruher SC vs. SpVgg Greuther Fürth: O/U 3.5Over won
- Karlsruher SC vs. SpVgg Greuther Fürth: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: SpVgg Greuther Fürth (-1.5)Karlsruher SC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.