MLB · resolved market
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7dd3fc29b7ba18b429e28236bbb928eacd4ff41565e7d48fee521e95f96d7590
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- New York Yankeesof New York Yankees, Seattle Mariners
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,725
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,500
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,725 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Seattle Mariners | 43c | 1,208$517 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$516.53 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Seattle Mariners | 64c | 805.46$515 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$515.49 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Seattle Mariners | 54c | 697.09$377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$377.03 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60b6…eb2bbacked New York Yankees | 46c | 629.99$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$343.1 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0273…1867backed New York Yankees | 36c | 534.22$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$341.9 | 293 | 44.7%131 W · 162 L | +13.0wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…6084backed New York Yankees | 36c | 480.8$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.71 | 591 | 50.3%297 W · 294 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed New York Yankees | 69c | 447.78$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.81 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked New York Yankees | 36c | 405.71$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.65 | 1,029 | 51.2%527 W · 502 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63a7…3bb2backed New York Yankees | 45c | 403.15$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.73 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…f4c1backed Seattle Mariners | 64c | 349.98$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.99 | 125 | 52%65 W · 60 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99be…3622backed New York Yankees | 68c | 310.11$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.23 | 57 | 52.6%30 W · 27 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04eb…f50dbacked Seattle Mariners | 65c | 252.93$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.08 | 187 | 54%101 W · 86 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae51…0d08backed Seattle Mariners | 16c | 189.92$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.39 | 364 | 40.1%146 W · 218 L | +9.4wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked New York Yankees | 76c | 162.2$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.09 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Seattle Mariners | 64c | 143.99$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.15 | 465 | 47.1%219 W · 246 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa04…796bbacked New York Yankees | 46c | 134.58$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.76 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Seattle Mariners | 56c | 124.65$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.25 | 1,355 | 49.8%675 W · 680 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae1c…3678backed New York Yankees | 36c | 114.01$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.96 | 261 | 51%133 W · 128 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd71…4598backed Seattle Mariners | 64c | 107.61$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.87 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.29per pick | 58cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Seattle Mariners | 32c | 103.89$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.18 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked New York Yankees | 40c | 98.19$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.7 | 1,912 | 53%1,014 W · 898 L | +42.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed New York Yankees | 47c | 95.85$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.8 | 781 | 46.4%362 W · 419 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf213…a627backed New York Yankees | 35c | 95.38$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 689 | 42.2%291 W · 398 L | +18.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Seattle Mariners | 55c | 88.59$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.73 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a18…e0b2backed Seattle Mariners | 60c | 84.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.48 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ca…e04dbacked Seattle Mariners | 64c | 75$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | -3.8wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x483a…4fd0backed New York Yankees | 45c | 64.47$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.46 | 80 | 51.3%41 W · 39 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked New York Yankees | 40c | 53.49$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.1 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe48c…68fbbacked New York Yankees | 46c | 52.59$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.4 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…3d0ebacked Seattle Mariners | 28c | 44.67$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.68 | 265 | 53.2%141 W · 124 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed New York Yankees | 41c | 44$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.96 | 777 | 52.1%405 W · 372 L | +36.0wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…d603backed Seattle Mariners | 28c | 39.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.14 | 137 | 42.3%58 W · 79 L | -7.9wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Seattle Mariners | 64c | 36.55$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.39 | 161 | 35.4%57 W · 104 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed New York Yankees | 36c | 31.57$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.2 | 873 | 52.7%460 W · 413 L | +9.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc15…3a2ebacked New York Yankees | 68c | 30.9$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.89 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc353…30a8backed New York Yankees | 37c | 27.35$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.33 | 104 | 49%51 W · 53 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked New York Yankees | 43c | 25.58$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.58 | 667 | 49.3%329 W · 338 L | -22.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa133…b3b2backed New York Yankees | 68c | 20.04$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.41 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa427…f87fbacked Seattle Mariners | 64c | 16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 99 | 48.5%48 W · 51 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)this page
- NRFI: New York Yankees vs. Seattle MarinersNo won
- New York Yankees vs. Seattle MarinersNew York Yankees won
- New York Yankees vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 3.5Over won
- New York Yankees vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 4.5Over won
- New York Yankees vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 5.5Over won
- New York Yankees vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 6.5Over won
- New York Yankees vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5Over won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-3.5)Seattle Mariners won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.