Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be 76°F or higher on February 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7df17ec72b3f24d5be1f4676277cb39289e504e7d32ce33b792f6f9241757393
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,941
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,250
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,941 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 13c | 822.17$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.57 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb7d…d9dfbacked Yes | 16c | 600.21$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.49 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 11cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 16c | 451$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.7 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 29c | 270$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.69 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…87a9backed Yes | 23c | 236.89$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 464 | 23.5%109 W · 355 L | +20.7wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35cd…9fa9backed Yes | 22c | 212.5$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.84 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 7c | 210$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x45c9…a3d1backed No | 74c | 139.83$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.14 | 275 | 60%165 W · 110 L | +7.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdeee…7c09backed Yes | 12c | 129.35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.36 | 93 | 51.6%48 W · 45 L | +7.9wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf911…8d8ebacked No | 71c | 110.28$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.38 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9642…a6a4backed Yes | 28c | 104.07$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.56 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70db…afb2backed Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 77 | 37.7%29 W · 48 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe31e…ec88backed Yes | 17c | 72.61$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 559 | 19.1%107 W · 452 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd30d…fd5dbacked No | 75c | 66.79$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.79 | 66 | 56.1%37 W · 29 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -17%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6372…4a25backed No | 80c | 62.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 410 | 70.5%289 W · 121 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 17c | 60.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc036…30d4backed No | 76c | 52.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.63 | 139 | 46%64 W · 75 L | -7.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8d…038bbacked Yes | 22c | 48.51$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 294 | 69.7%205 W · 89 L | +26.7wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x341a…973dbacked No | 76c | 45.57$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.13 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +3.5wins | +0.35per pick | 45cpaid | +74%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7943…27a1backed Yes | 31c | 41.66$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.91 | 320 | 44.7%143 W · 177 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab0a…36b1backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.88 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc556…9720backed Yes | 38c | 35.01$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 255 | 49%125 W · 130 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ac6…b663backed No | 73c | 31.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.77 | 67 | 41.8%28 W · 39 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x162e…986bbacked No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 70 | 55.7%39 W · 31 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2e5…86f4backed No | 77c | 19.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 43 | 62.8%27 W · 16 L | +4.5wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 69c | 18.51$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.78 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 72c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.92 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be 76°F or higher on February 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 68-69°F on February 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 70-71°F on February 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 72-73°F on February 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 74-75°F on February 9?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.