Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 18°C on March 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7dfb796f7711d60f8edccdbbff810d4ffe8ae5177532c307875c975453e454ed
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,680
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,680 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x100a…c6cebacked No | 1c | 3,000$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 255 | 4.3%11 W · 244 L | +8.3wins | +0.03per pick | 1cpaid | +221.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed No | 1c | 1,500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea2…e97fbacked Yes | 32c | 1,412$457 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$954.96 | 350 | 18%63 W · 287 L | +11.8wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed No | 14c | 959.88$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.81 | 468 | 24.4%114 W · 354 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9715…6f82backed Yes | 35c | 674.59$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$436.29 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +110.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x672f…13ccbacked Yes | 65c | 396.26$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.65 | 330 | 58.8%194 W · 136 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x740e…93a9backed Yes | 80c | 250$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 26c | 209.56$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.3 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 166.66$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 9c | 162.4$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 8c | 159.84$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xafc7…216ebacked No | 35c | 159.76$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.61 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +61.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 58c | 148.33$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.85 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 53c | 135.19$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.79 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6372…4a25backed No | 67c | 111.94$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 410 | 70.5%289 W · 121 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked No | 13c | 104.71$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 342 | 19.9%68 W · 274 L | +18.6wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 71c | 102.17$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.26 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a5a…77e5backed Yes | 39c | 101.41$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.41 | 97 | 24.7%24 W · 73 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 73c | 100.97$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.74 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 71c | 100$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 80c | 100$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf40…9e76backed Yes | 68c | 94$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.31 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f0…0bd2backed No | 58c | 90$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.2 | 92 | 50%46 W · 46 L | -9.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 21c | 90$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.1 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x454c…98cebacked Yes | 29c | 87.67$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.24 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 75c | 77.94$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.24 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 69c | 76.05$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf602…38e9backed Yes | 34c | 72.32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.67 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 23c | 66.95$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.55 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 23c | 66$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.82 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed Yes | 38c | 65.79$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.79 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 60c | 65$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.18 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 39c | 64.85$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.85 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 66c | 63.58$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.75 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 20c | 59.31$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.45 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Yes | 60c | 57.45$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.7 | 249 | 32.9%82 W · 167 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3bba…a2eabacked Yes | 80c | 55.45$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.09 | 182 | 55.5%101 W · 81 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1348…7037backed Yes | 69c | 55.45$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.19 | 176 | 65.9%116 W · 60 L | +12.7wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8680…a628backed Yes | 66c | 55.15$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.75 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x357f…b6c5backed No | 72c | 55$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.65 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -3.9wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4a49…4af6backed Yes | 58c | 50.38$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.38 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +73.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x662b…eb47backed No | 69c | 47.67$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.89 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x148f…2f09backed Yes | 25c | 47.41$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.6 | 71 | 40.8%29 W · 42 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdedb…5e54backed Yes | 30c | 43.21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.41 | 183 | 51.4%94 W · 89 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x163f…c4b4backed No | 75c | 40.77$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.67 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 69cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked No | 75c | 33.43$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc73d…565abacked Yes | 64c | 31.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.36 | 51 | 39.2%20 W · 31 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09c5…9e8abacked Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 213 | 33.8%72 W · 141 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3487…11f5backed Yes | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 96 | 53.1%51 W · 45 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 45c | 26.05$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 155 | 58.1%90 W · 65 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f03…2ddebacked No | 71c | 21.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c4d…ee6abacked Yes | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 76 | 53.9%41 W · 35 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cb2…d4d1backed Yes | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48ec…a20abacked Yes | 66c | 18.18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.18 | 34 | 70.6%24 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 72cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…db02backed No | 71c | 18.1$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.85 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x744b…8d31backed Yes | 61c | 16.61$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbac…435fbacked No | 74c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 81 | 53.1%43 W · 38 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 18°C on March 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 17°C on March 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 19°C on March 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 20°C on March 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 21°C on March 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.