NHL · resolved market
Spread: Flames (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7e1906d49aaecfef92a766dbdd846884b09c2b975303a820fe1c0496d12c582f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Flamesof Flames, Flyers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,307
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,309
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,307 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1b9e…0262backed Flames | 37c | 3,985$1,474 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,510.25 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -3.2wins | -0.15per pick | 54cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe403…3d50backed Flyers | 63c | 1,345$847 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$847.35 | 112 | 52.7%59 W · 53 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5976…b3d4backed Flyers | 63c | 1,325$835 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$834.75 | 131 | 47.3%62 W · 69 L | -4.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad15…ee7fbacked Flyers | 63c | 1,310$825 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$825 | 69 | 46.4%32 W · 37 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b1…e904backed Flames | 34c | 147.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.15 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed3f…0ab8backed Flyers | 66c | 107$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.62 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10f7…26f0backed Flyers | 67c | 106$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.02 | 49 | 67.3%33 W · 16 L | +5.0wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa65b…b0c0backed Flyers | 67c | 103$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.01 | 59 | 55.9%33 W · 26 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4130…a35bbacked Flyers | 67c | 102$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.34 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked Flames | 35c | 100$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 541 | 32.7%177 W · 364 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb81d…c6c0backed Flyers | 67c | 88$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.96 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x279b…7d84backed Flames | 33c | 80$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.21 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.18per pick | 54cpaid | -33%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9061…9510backed Flyers | 67c | 79$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.93 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9db…d934backed Flyers | 68c | 73.53$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.29per pick | 62cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3920…23e7backed Flyers | 66c | 69.15$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.64 | 396 | 49.5%196 W · 200 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Flames | 43c | 65.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.61 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89ad…5e22backed Flyers | 67c | 65$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.55 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -2.9wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x470e…07c0backed Flyers | 67c | 54$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.18 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Flyers | 66c | 54$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.64 | 479 | 44.7%214 W · 265 L | -25.8wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1436…e23dbacked Flyers | 67c | 47$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.49 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3517…9f8dbacked Flames | 33c | 45$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.15 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x581b…0290backed Flyers | 67c | 44$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.48 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f33…8f17backed Flames | 33c | 43$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.81 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Flames | 32c | 42$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.56 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Flames | 38c | 38.04$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.58 | 607 | 41%249 W · 358 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9773…67e8backed Flyers | 67c | 36$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.12 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x102f…9b6ebacked Flyers | 67c | 35$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.45 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Flyers | 65c | 31.97$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.78 | 881 | 51.2%451 W · 430 L | +10.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Flyers | 65c | 30.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.52 | 1,679 | 54.4%914 W · 765 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd4…7696backed Flames | 35c | 30.03$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.52 | 184 | 52.2%96 W · 88 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Flyers | 65c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 740 | 54.5%403 W · 337 L | +22.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Flyers | 54c | 26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.01 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Flyers | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 601 | 41.9%252 W · 349 L | -8.5wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f9…5526backed Flyers | 67c | 19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.73 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65ea…223fbacked Flyers | 67c | 17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.39 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Flames (-1.5)this page
- Flyers vs. FlamesFlames won
- Flyers vs. Flames: O/U 5.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.