Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7ebd2b64af04a015a655f77b13b42c17f5c29e69a17535a79c373c955b76926f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,794
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,915
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,794 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x45e3…b5dabacked Yes | 36c | 280.3$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 11c | 211.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.28 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x26ad…f795backed Yes | 54c | 150.64$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.58 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.1wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 29c | 150.42$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.43 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 74c | 111$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.77 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedba…002dbacked No | 72c | 110.31$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.4 | 96 | 79.2%76 W · 20 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 74cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 57c | 107.5$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.78 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 43c | 81.8$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.33 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 43c | 77.15$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.42 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dbf…aa75backed Yes | 53c | 75.85$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.35 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 33c | 74.59$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.86 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 60c | 73.89$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.76 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 28c | 69.36$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.18 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 51c | 67.5$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.83 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 60c | 66.73$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26a3…68efbacked Yes | 29c | 65.54$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.01 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 71c | 63.73$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.73 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb33…19d9backed Yes | 38c | 63.59$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 64 | 37.5%24 W · 40 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8842…dfa7backed Yes | 30c | 62.5$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 452 | 36.5%165 W · 287 L | +20.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…3b5dbacked Yes | 27c | 59.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.26 | 137 | 38.7%53 W · 84 L | +13.3wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 78c | 56.2$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.63 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 56c | 51.8$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.57 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf836…fcffbacked Yes | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39c9…b108backed No | 73c | 49.99$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.7 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +8.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 42c | 49.81$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.87 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 23c | 48.76$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.18 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 71c | 48.56$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.28 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed Yes | 37c | 33.75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.49 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe396…dce1backed No | 67c | 30.29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.14 | 236 | 66.1%156 W · 80 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82e7…f552backed No | 73c | 29.89$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.14 | 354 | 41%145 W · 209 L | -19.3wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 68c | 29.7$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.55 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed No | 58c | 29.08$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.21 | 481 | 49.5%238 W · 243 L | -26.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 75c | 26.66$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.66 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b18…2639backed Yes | 40c | 26.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 438 | 42%184 W · 254 L | -14.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41fa…7cc4backed No | 72c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.95 | 792 | 55.2%437 W · 355 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 57c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 56c | 24.48$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.85 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 49c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.13 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7615…308abacked No | 56c | 21.34$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.34 | 184 | 41.3%76 W · 108 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -23%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 71c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.09 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…2132backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 714 | 64.3%459 W · 255 L | -37.4wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 68c | 19.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.42 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 77c | 19.15$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.39 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 71c | 17.59$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.1 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 71c | 16.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.85 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06b4…6307backed No | 63c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 67c | 15.98$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 7?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on June 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on June 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on June 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.