Bundesliga · resolved market
1. FC Kaiserslautern vs. SpVgg Greuther Fürth: Both Teams to Score
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7ec8924ff53d843fe8f3ee5fd5e3a0fe595b4dac4d3ae3a9d14277adf3f7e16e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,870
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,883
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,870 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 54c | 989.92$532 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$457.45 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc686…5a55backed Yes | 39c | 850$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334 | 241 | 32%77 W · 164 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa72e…3db9backed Yes | 47c | 534.82$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.4 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 42c | 376.91$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.17 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 65c | 270.45$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.99 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5b8…99f3backed No | 10c | 262.22$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked No | 57c | 217.35$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.56 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed No | 47c | 123.98$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.22 | 762 | 34.8%265 W · 497 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 52c | 111.59$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.06 | 381 | 51.4%196 W · 185 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5876…793fbacked No | 42c | 100$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 58c | 93.22$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.34 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfe6…49f8backed Yes | 60c | 83.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 221 | 57%126 W · 95 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0040…9eb8backed Yes | 68c | 73.53$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 225 | 62.2%140 W · 85 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked No | 68c | 73.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.51 | 215 | 40.9%88 W · 127 L | -15.5wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Yes | 38c | 52.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 271 | 42.8%116 W · 155 L | +18.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…4d6ebacked Yes | 52c | 49.41$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.64 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | -3.6wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked No | 67c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 110 | 45.5%50 W · 60 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1813…4dfebacked No | 52c | 36.77$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.49 | 183 | 53%97 W · 86 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6be…b977backed Yes | 65c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 89 | 50.6%45 W · 44 L | +5.3wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…04b5backed Yes | 53c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +84.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0501…61ecbacked Yes | 66c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.15per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30d0…ee0bbacked No | 45c | 24.77$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +123.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Yes | 58c | 21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Yes | 60c | 18.7$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 481 | 46.4%223 W · 258 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs. SpVgg Greuther Fürth: Both Teams to Scorethis page
- 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs. SpVgg Greuther Fürth: O/U 1.5Under won
- 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs. SpVgg Greuther Fürth: O/U 2.5Under won
- 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs. SpVgg Greuther Fürth: O/U 3.5Under won
- 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs. SpVgg Greuther Fürth: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: 1. FC Kaiserslautern (-1.5)SpVgg Greuther Fürth won
- Spread: SpVgg Greuther Fürth (-1.5)1. FC Kaiserslautern won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.