Fifa International · resolved market
Will Argentina win on 2025-10-10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7ece94f773dab135972ebd60138f3fa0684e28835923358eb2fde8fa200e6b56
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,747
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,167
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,747 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 0c | 7,191$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.09 | 779 | 9.6%75 W · 704 L | -11.8wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked No | 14c | 4,586$626 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$626.43 | 107 | 48.6%52 W · 55 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 11c | 4,357$491 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490.95 | 246 | 47.6%117 W · 129 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 14c | 3,106$438 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$437.56 | 4,595 | 40.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L | -91.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed No | 15c | 3,050$458 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$457.5 | 605 | 11.4%69 W · 536 L | -16.5wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -38%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed No | 15c | 2,231$331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330.79 | 465 | 36.1%168 W · 297 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb36…9545backed No | 13c | 1,000$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a32…6d7ebacked No | 13c | 1,000$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -20%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48e3…c148backed No | 18c | 799.96$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.99 | 96 | 18.8%18 W · 78 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 13c | 700.6$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.98 | 3,696 | 36.9%1,364 W · 2,332 L | -44.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2934…0b51backed No | 19c | 499.95$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.99 | 274 | 34.3%94 W · 180 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x865f…e88ebacked No | 15c | 477.64$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.33 | 1,045 | 29.3%306 W · 739 L | -10.8wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0f…4faabacked No | 12c | 304.13$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.5 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed No | 16c | 300$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 96 | 42.7%41 W · 55 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedae…584fbacked No | 13c | 279.31$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.31 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed No | 15c | 272.74$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.91 | 346 | 30.1%104 W · 242 L | -21.8wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x41f6…4067backed No | 18c | 200$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked No | 23c | 106$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.26 | 396 | 21%83 W · 313 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26ae…97b8backed No | 17c | 88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 112 | 59.8%67 W · 45 L | +7.3wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 17c | 76.63$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.83 | 4,027 | 38.9%1,568 W · 2,459 L | -26.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e7e…425ebacked Yes | 78c | 17.95$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.95 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41b7…f6babacked Yes | 79c | 17.07$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.58 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -4.0wins | -0.12per pick | 59cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Argentina win on 2025-10-10?this page
- Will Argentina vs. Venezuela end in a draw?No won
- Will Venezuela win on 2025-10-10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.