Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Louisville vs. Duke
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7ee19012c55beccb7fd3f85b9a3868f0b1bc4217aa170e974bea0081a03c7ff1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Dukeof Louisville, Duke
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $43,380
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,209
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,380 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa47a…fd11backed Duke | 65c | 20,102$13,099 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,003.08 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80a5…f9babacked Louisville | 36c | 19,091$6,913 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,912.62 | 81 | 43.2%35 W · 46 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe81…5fe9backed Louisville | 16c | 4,500$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a64…4430backed Louisville | 46c | 2,327$1,063 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,063.03 | 188 | 50%94 W · 94 L | +11.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d45…b661backed Louisville | 31c | 1,654$509 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$508.67 | 102 | 36.3%37 W · 65 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ba5…aaf1backed Duke | 69c | 1,450$1,001 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$449.59 | 83 | 56.6%47 W · 36 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Duke | 68c | 1,363$927 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$436.03 | 530 | 57.4%304 W · 226 L | +33.1wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…4c40backed Duke | 65c | 1,147$746 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$401.15 | 86 | 44.2%38 W · 48 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Duke | 58c | 1,000$580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420 | 391 | 44.5%174 W · 217 L | -16.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked Louisville | 12c | 863.99$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.45 | 399 | 3.3%13 W · 386 L | -21.0wins | -0.05per pick | 9cpaid | -89.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Louisville | 28c | 583.56$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.4 | 1,391 | 44.1%613 W · 778 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e87…8befbacked Duke | 72c | 555.56$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.56 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8053…2a8ebacked Louisville | 38c | 526.32$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 42 | 26.2%11 W · 31 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6cf1…3c6bbacked Duke | 71c | 350$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6650…d38ebacked Duke | 70c | 333.33$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 81 | 51.9%42 W · 39 L | +5.1wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Duke | 71c | 281.69$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.69 | 616 | 52.8%325 W · 291 L | +21.6wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea5…2af9backed Duke | 72c | 277.78$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.78 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -3.1wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x931f…d15dbacked Duke | 72c | 277.78$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.78 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a61…1787backed Louisville | 33c | 200.35$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 164 | 45.1%74 W · 90 L | +8.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x024a…decbbacked Louisville | 29c | 200$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed Duke | 50c | 180$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 415 | 54.2%225 W · 190 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89b3…6ed8backed Duke | 78c | 150$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 25 | 80%20 W · 5 L | +2.8wins | +0.11per pick | 69cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb13d…2e90backed Duke | 80c | 145$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.38 | 556 | 57.4%319 W · 237 L | +20.3wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Louisville | 28c | 119.29$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.58 | 168 | 42.3%71 W · 97 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Duke | 74c | 100.97$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.97 | 78 | 60.3%47 W · 31 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9e2…721bbacked Louisville | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0af8…9454backed Duke | 72c | 99.1$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.1 | 105 | 58.1%61 W · 44 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2366…1078backed Duke | 71c | 98.2$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.2 | 247 | 59.5%147 W · 100 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…63a3backed Louisville | 18c | 81.26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Duke | 71c | 70.06$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.06 | 84 | 63.1%53 W · 31 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f62…82f5backed Duke | 68c | 35.05$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.22 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 59cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9488…6802backed Duke | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +3.0wins | +0.19per pick | 50cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.