Fifa International · resolved market
Will Paraguay win on 2025-10-10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7f00640e571f6624b7f5e8e22e8f7631bab5eb5e3ead8fb796d4aa0129877a46
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,201
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,578
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,201 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0a7e…fce4backed Yes | 17c | 4,500$755 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$754.94 | 105 | 48.6%51 W · 54 L | +11.1wins | +0.11per pick | 38cpaid | +24%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcd00…7a45backed Yes | 70c | 2,402$1,686 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,686.48 | 72 | 47.2%34 W · 38 L | -4.3wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 36c | 2,138$761 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,377.39 | 3,696 | 36.9%1,364 W · 2,332 L | -44.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Yes | 16c | 2,000$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 470 | 32.8%154 W · 316 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09ae…b883backed No | 40c | 1,700$680 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,020 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +3.0wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +47.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 18c | 1,693$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.87 | 107 | 48.6%52 W · 55 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ef4…4e4ebacked Yes | 17c | 780.41$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.67 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe13b…e29dbacked Yes | 72c | 632.94$456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$455.72 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad46…65a7backed Yes | 17c | 597.02$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48e3…c148backed Yes | 18c | 593.35$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.8 | 96 | 18.8%18 W · 78 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c69…9e30backed Yes | 17c | 591.82$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.61 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2fa…055abacked Yes | 46c | 541.09$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6980…2194backed Yes | 19c | 450$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 23cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 45c | 355.56$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.13 | 4,595 | 40.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L | -91.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaba9…a356backed Yes | 64c | 348.29$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdab…088abacked Yes | 16c | 300$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +50.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed Yes | 17c | 299.99$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 96 | 42.7%41 W · 55 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed No | 59c | 289.18$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.62 | 346 | 30.1%104 W · 242 L | -21.8wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdf6f…80adbacked Yes | 42c | 276.19$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfb…2398backed Yes | 18c | 250$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 80 | 42.5%34 W · 46 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Yes | 19c | 217.25$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.99 | 203 | 22.7%46 W · 157 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbf5…6638backed Yes | 21c | 190.48$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4e9…4769backed Yes | 17c | 180.15$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.23per pick | 63cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3305…f25fbacked No | 80c | 158.81$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x230b…d3d6backed Yes | 16c | 150$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x893c…b437backed Yes | 71c | 140.85$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.21per pick | 61cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 65c | 131.96$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.63 | 246 | 47.6%117 W · 129 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked No | 28c | 118.79$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.35 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3b5…963ebacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 31cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8214…2a5ebacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd072…f8b6backed Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked Yes | 19c | 99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.81 | 396 | 21%83 W · 313 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c86…6993backed No | 77c | 94.48$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.58 | 215 | 42.8%92 W · 123 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x865f…e88ebacked Yes | 19c | 94.18$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.83 | 1,045 | 29.3%306 W · 739 L | -10.8wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1d2…d560backed Yes | 23c | 86.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.23per pick | 36cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x243c…409cbacked Yes | 54c | 73.47$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb857…a6aabacked Yes | 20c | 65$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bc6…c936backed No | 41c | 60.98$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.98 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba49…a4a1backed Yes | 20c | 60.15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.03 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc7…5d7bbacked Yes | 20c | 50.95$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 789 | 27.5%217 W · 572 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe081…2b52backed Yes | 67c | 40$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc6…6fc0backed Yes | 62c | 26.69$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.55 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea50…f79ebacked Yes | 72c | 22.22$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Paraguay win on 2025-10-10?this page
- Will Japan vs. Paraguay end in a draw?Yes won
- Will Japan win on 2025-10-10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.