Will Japan win on 2025-10-10?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0ac2a3bc2e00b886191a96c7aed3e2d0bfd902bc74b3dbb5facd0f6544840b1b

Rebuilt 8 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Oct 10, 2025, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $45,745
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $37,623

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,745 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 87 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x2129…4222backed No	40c	18,627$7,518 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11,108.26	246	47.6%117 W · 129 L	+7.7wins	+0.03per pick	44cpaid	+1.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x66c5…85b2backed Yes	58c	10,241$5,989 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,988.62	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	-0.8wins	-0.12per pick	41cpaid	-49.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x958c…4d8abacked Yes	65c	7,363$4,786 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,785.81	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.3wins	-0.15per pick	65cpaid	-21.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Yes	12c	4,932$604 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$603.61	4,595	40.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L	-91.3wins	-0.02per pick	42cpaid	-23.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5693…71fdbacked Yes	29c	2,236$648 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$648	21	42.9%9 W · 12 L	-1.5wins	-0.07per pick	50cpaid	-15%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x29c0…efaabacked No	43c	1,104$479 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$624.93	107	48.6%52 W · 55 L	+3.0wins	+0.03per pick	46cpaid	+6.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed No	40c	1,000$400 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$600	470	32.8%154 W · 316 L	-0.7wins	0.00per pick	33cpaid	-0.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x823c…0425backed Yes	60c	1,000$600 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$600	8	50%4 W · 4 L	-1.3wins	-0.17per pick	67cpaid	-29.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9dd2…fec8backed Yes	60c	1,000$600 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$600	9	44.4%4 W · 5 L	+0.6wins	+0.06per pick	38cpaid	-10.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4c86…6993backed No	43c	988$425 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$563.16	215	42.8%92 W · 123 L	+10.4wins	+0.05per pick	38cpaid	+18.9%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb853…0d33backed No	43c	701.37$300 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$401.37	44	34.1%15 W · 29 L	-3.2wins	-0.07per pick	41cpaid	-26.1%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf661…d170backed No	45c	699.97$315 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$384.98	18	11.1%2 W · 16 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-63.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed No	38c	683.2$261 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$422.67	226	34.1%77 W · 149 L	-1.8wins	-0.01per pick	35cpaid	-14.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd2fa…055abacked Yes	54c	612.46$328 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$327.98	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-1.0wins	-0.50per pick	50cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0531…a52fbacked Yes	10c	500$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9262…b123backed Yes	60c	497.23$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	4	50%2 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.08per pick	58cpaid	-22.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xce2b…08fabacked Yes	56c	447.67$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250	225	51.6%116 W · 109 L	-6.8wins	-0.03per pick	55cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0521…cc4abacked Yes	54c	444.44$240 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$240	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	-0.8wins	-0.11per pick	54cpaid	-39.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x63aa…c5c8backed Yes	20c	407$82 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$81.96	39	46.2%18 W · 21 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-14.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8511…ed83backed Yes	56c	381.77$214 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$213.79	17	41.2%7 W · 10 L	-1.5wins	-0.09per pick	50cpaid	-32.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2c33…0563backed Yes	57c	381.37$217 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$217.38	747	52.2%390 W · 357 L	+2.4wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4caf…6de9backed Yes	55c	360.31$198 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$198.17	34	26.5%9 W · 25 L	-2.1wins	-0.06per pick	33cpaid	-26%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2934…0b51backed No	41c	350$144 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$206.5	274	34.3%94 W · 180 L	+4.1wins	+0.02per pick	33cpaid	+0.1%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe83c…5e8fbacked No	42c	313$131 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$181.54	120	47.5%57 W · 63 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-6.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x227c…ee3fbacked Yes	56c	300$168 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$168	28	60.7%17 W · 11 L	+0.8wins	+0.03per pick	58cpaid	-6.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x45d1…7017backed No	43c	299.96$129 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$170.98	96	42.7%41 W · 55 L	-3.2wins	-0.03per pick	46cpaid	-2.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdd7b…75ecbacked Yes	59c	250.07$148 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$147.69	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-0.7wins	-0.14per pick	54cpaid	-12%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd82a…5fcfbacked No	42c	215.17$89 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$125.81	119	51.3%61 W · 58 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x480d…f219backed No	47c	212.77$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$112.77	102	63.7%65 W · 37 L	+11.7wins	+0.11per pick	52cpaid	+24.8%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x4021…956abacked Yes	50c	200.09$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	28	39.3%11 W · 17 L	-2.0wins	-0.07per pick	46cpaid	+2.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5543…4195backed Yes	66c	200$132 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$132	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-1.4wins	-0.34per pick	59cpaid	-60.9%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x46f5…30bcbacked Yes	59c	196.92$116 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$116.18	47	29.8%14 W · 33 L	+1.0wins	+0.02per pick	28cpaid	+11.5%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc8b4…f05dbacked No	38c	193.55$74 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$120	124	51.6%64 W · 60 L	+4.5wins	+0.04per pick	48cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xad46…65a7backed No	53c	188.68$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$88.68	41	56.1%23 W · 18 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	56cpaid	-11.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked No	60c	185.01$110 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$74.85	3,696	36.9%1,364 W · 2,332 L	-44.0wins	-0.01per pick	38cpaid	-23.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x41e3…1962backed Yes	56c	178.57$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	18	33.3%6 W · 12 L	-2.2wins	-0.12per pick	46cpaid	-44.6%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xaa14…ebb0backed Yes	57c	175.44$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-1.8wins	-0.59per pick	59cpaid	-100%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x71c1…e358backed Yes	60c	166.55$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.93	104	31.7%33 W · 71 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	32cpaid	-8.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x35fd…582dbacked No	61c	163.93$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$63.93	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.4wins	+0.39per pick	61cpaid	+63.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc8d2…2381backed Yes	61c	163.93$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	22	50%11 W · 11 L	+2.1wins	+0.09per pick	41cpaid	+11.5%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0a4a…14d2backed Yes	62c	161.29$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	-2.1wins	-0.23per pick	57cpaid	-49.7%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1c2b…aa95backed Yes	57c	139.04$79 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-0.7wins	-0.11per pick	45cpaid	-49.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1a54…e581backed Yes	59c	101.69$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	45	53.3%24 W · 21 L	-3.6wins	-0.08per pick	61cpaid	-17.6%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5530…d38dbacked Yes	59c	100$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59	170	50.6%86 W · 84 L	+2.5wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-3.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x41b7…f6babacked Yes	57c	100$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57	34	47.1%16 W · 18 L	-4.0wins	-0.12per pick	59cpaid	-20.4%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7846…3a40backed Yes	61c	100$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-1.5wins	-0.30per pick	70cpaid	-46.6%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xea9e…d3fbbacked No	42c	100$42 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$58	396	21%83 W · 313 L	-0.8wins	0.00per pick	21cpaid	-6.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5cff…83c4backed Yes	59c	99.08$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.46	19	73.7%14 W · 5 L	+1.9wins	+0.10per pick	64cpaid	+16.9%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed No	42c	92.77$39 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$53.58	465	36.1%168 W · 297 L	+6.3wins	+0.01per pick	35cpaid	-2.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcba6…bb05backed No	53c	89.85$48 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$42.14	90	46.7%42 W · 48 L	-1.4wins	-0.02per pick	48cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6be6…45bbbacked Yes	59c	84.75$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.6wins	-0.59per pick	59cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8718…db3abacked Yes	57c	81.63$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.53	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.6wins	-0.57per pick	57cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2160…bcb3backed Yes	56c	71.43$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	59	39%23 W · 36 L	-2.3wins	-0.04per pick	43cpaid	-6.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc846…9486backed Yes	56c	71.43$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-1.8wins	-0.26per pick	26cpaid	-100%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x02c7…ee5cbacked Yes	57c	69.83$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	19	57.9%11 W · 8 L	+0.9wins	+0.05per pick	53cpaid	+25.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x06a9…1a49backed Yes	59c	68.23$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	363	49.3%179 W · 184 L	+15.4wins	+0.04per pick	45cpaid	+6.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbc0f…18b4backed Yes	59c	67.82$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	29	51.7%15 W · 14 L	-1.6wins	-0.06per pick	57cpaid	-11.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf351…5364backed Yes	60c	66.67$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.7wins	-0.24per pick	57cpaid	-51.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x908a…ad16backed Yes	45c	64.57$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.35	346	30.1%104 W · 242 L	-21.8wins	-0.06per pick	36cpaid	-39.3%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6dff…bc36backed No	40c	59.99$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$35.8	13	38.5%5 W · 8 L	-1.3wins	-0.10per pick	48cpaid	-20.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc7f7…2abfbacked No	42c	57.53$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$33.37	203	22.7%46 W · 157 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-18.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1889…0714backed No	42c	55.45$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$32.16	136	54.4%74 W · 62 L	+6.6wins	+0.05per pick	50cpaid	+7.4%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xacc3…acaebacked Yes	59c	52.25$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.83	28	53.6%15 W · 13 L	-1.0wins	-0.03per pick	57cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6d01…0ab1backed No	39c	51.93$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$31.68	100	33%33 W · 67 L	+1.1wins	+0.01per pick	32cpaid	-2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xced0…c680backed Yes	60c	50$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.3wins	-0.14per pick	64cpaid	-26.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8a31…d650backed Yes	60c	50$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.12per pick	62cpaid	-21.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0ef4…4e4ebacked Yes	38c	46.29$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.36	45	44.4%20 W · 25 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	43cpaid	-5.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2d22…3aabbacked Yes	53c	43.64$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23	10	10%1 W · 9 L	-2.7wins	-0.27per pick	37cpaid	-50%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x03ed…c077backed No	47c	39.28$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.82	63	66.7%42 W · 21 L	+7.4wins	+0.12per pick	55cpaid	+11.6%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x7a88…fd7fbacked Yes	54c	37.04$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	29	62.1%18 W · 11 L	-0.8wins	-0.03per pick	65cpaid	-6.9%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e16…41f8backed Yes	55c	36.36$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-2.7wins	-0.67per pick	67cpaid	-100%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0xe1a0…63b2backed Yes	55c	36.36$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-1.1wins	-0.54per pick	54cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xce18…a9dbbacked Yes	56c	35.71$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	7	71.4%5 W · 2 L	+1.2wins	+0.17per pick	54cpaid	+34.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1a9e…7607backed Yes	58c	34.48$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.6wins	-0.58per pick	58cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x61ac…37e8backed Yes	58c	34.48$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.6wins	-0.58per pick	58cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x60e3…08a6backed Yes	36c	33.41$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.14	32	59.4%19 W · 13 L	+0.7wins	+0.02per pick	57cpaid	-9.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7231…8e0ebacked Yes	60c	33.33$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	11	72.7%8 W · 3 L	+0.5wins	+0.04per pick	69cpaid	+0.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x23bf…5592backed Yes	46c	32.87$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	8	62.5%5 W · 3 L	-0.4wins	-0.05per pick	68cpaid	-14.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa55b…b8cfbacked Yes	59c	32.2$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.6wins	-0.59per pick	59cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa446…d9c6backed Yes	59c	31.2$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.41	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.8wins	-0.27per pick	60cpaid	-56.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8191…8a35backed No	44c	30$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.8	42	54.8%23 W · 19 L	+4.1wins	+0.10per pick	45cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe484…7c7abacked Yes	56c	30$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.8	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.6wins	-0.56per pick	56cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xba1b…82fdbacked No	52c	28.85$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.85	22	40.9%9 W · 13 L	-1.7wins	-0.08per pick	49cpaid	-25.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xacd8…b9f6backed Yes	56c	26.79$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	6	66.7%4 W · 2 L	+0.6wins	+0.10per pick	56cpaid	+11.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x540c…a634backed Yes	64c	23.44$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	16	43.8%7 W · 9 L	+0.8wins	+0.05per pick	39cpaid	+48.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf102…1348backed No	46c	22$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.88	789	27.5%217 W · 572 L	+2.0wins	0.00per pick	27cpaid	+0.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1a51…4cc0backed Yes	61c	21.31$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	38	63.2%24 W · 14 L	+2.1wins	+0.06per pick	58cpaid	+48.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Will Japan win on 2025-10-10?this page
Will Japan vs. Paraguay end in a draw?Yes won
Will Paraguay win on 2025-10-10?No won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Japan win on 2025-10-10?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event