Other European Leagues · resolved market
Will CD Nacional vs. Casa Pia AC end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7f0e645b592f26fa71c70ae6fd72514dead9bff25c629d734546ad8a56b30b56
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,579
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,930
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,579 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 18c | 6,356$1,167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,167.35 | 5,604 | 42%2,356 W · 3,248 L | +75.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2575…bf1ebacked Yes | 29c | 2,100$609 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,491 | 47 | 21.3%10 W · 37 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 58c | 1,203$699 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$699.37 | 7,889 | 45.4%3,579 W · 4,310 L | +11.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 68c | 878.51$596 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$596 | 2,130 | 45.8%975 W · 1,155 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 34c | 712.98$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.21 | 638 | 49.5%316 W · 322 L | +26.8wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 29c | 678$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$482.1 | 1,441 | 51.1%736 W · 705 L | -16.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9425…f025backed Yes | 44c | 569$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.64 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked No | 71c | 502$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.42 | 96 | 53.1%51 W · 45 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a2…9874backed Yes | 28c | 407.14$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.14 | 141 | 32.6%46 W · 95 L | +6.6wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…a835backed No | 40c | 400$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 269 | 49.8%134 W · 135 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dce…b663backed No | 74c | 367.31$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.81 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 73cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 24c | 268.37$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.68 | 648 | 42%272 W · 376 L | -12.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6b…075fbacked No | 23c | 200$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.95 | 98 | 48%47 W · 51 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda16…6da2backed No | 40c | 140$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.3 | 102 | 52%53 W · 49 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed No | 32c | 132$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.67 | 511 | 40.9%209 W · 302 L | -12.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x806b…5cd8backed Yes | 56c | 89.82$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.82 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Yes | 58c | 88.88$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.33 | 1,098 | 50.5%554 W · 544 L | -36.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e8d…e22dbacked Yes | 29c | 85.97$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.04 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed No | 64c | 70$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.8 | 641 | 43.4%278 W · 363 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…6da6backed No | 26c | 69.38$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.04 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed No | 55c | 59$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.45 | 187 | 43.9%82 W · 105 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fb…74f3backed Yes | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.05 | 49 | 30.6%15 W · 34 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41ad…8dddbacked No | 31c | 45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 60 | 25%15 W · 45 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc758…8574backed No | 36c | 41.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 149 | 50.3%75 W · 74 L | +12.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdbe0…e3e0backed No | 65c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 39c | 31.76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.23 | 986 | 53.2%525 W · 461 L | +22.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 73c | 26$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.98 | 2,543 | 52.4%1,333 W · 1,210 L | +18.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will CD Nacional vs. Casa Pia AC end in a draw?this page
- Will CD Nacional win on 2026-02-08?No won
- Will Casa Pia AC win on 2026-02-08?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.