Serie A · resolved market
Spread: Cagliari Calcio (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7f2242e495c8e86bdcef3653c19bdf7192b023664aa305366361ed4c283cc630
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- US Lecceof Cagliari Calcio, US Lecce
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,338
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,615
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,338 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Cagliari Calcio | 17c | 10,378$1,728 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,728.04 | 969 | 42.3%410 W · 559 L | -13.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Cagliari Calcio | 17c | 1,250$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.5 | 98 | 26.5%26 W · 72 L | -5.0wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c82…b56bbacked Cagliari Calcio | 17c | 588.24$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 99 | 53.5%53 W · 46 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Cagliari Calcio | 17c | 588.23$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 331 | 44.7%148 W · 183 L | -8.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9592…a85bbacked Cagliari Calcio | 7c | 300$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2eae…a25fbacked Cagliari Calcio | 17c | 294.12$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 127 | 44.1%56 W · 71 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa010…7b1abacked Cagliari Calcio | 18c | 263.19$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3d…e7ebbacked Cagliari Calcio | 17c | 235.29$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 175 | 38.9%68 W · 107 L | +6.8wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0180…b8cdbacked Cagliari Calcio | 17c | 188.24$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa35f…b58fbacked Cagliari Calcio | 18c | 157.04$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.27 | 99 | 37.4%37 W · 62 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f19…ec51backed Cagliari Calcio | 10c | 125$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.38 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb53…c50bbacked Cagliari Calcio | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 66 | 45.5%30 W · 36 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71d6…a929backed Cagliari Calcio | 18c | 105.26$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.95 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ccc…dbcdbacked Cagliari Calcio | 15c | 101$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.15 | 84 | 39.3%33 W · 51 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed Cagliari Calcio | 17c | 100.94$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.16 | 233 | 53.6%125 W · 108 L | +14.7wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x741c…bf80backed Cagliari Calcio | 17c | 100.33$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.06 | 36 | 5.6%2 W · 34 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb10b…ec5ebacked Cagliari Calcio | 17c | 100.22$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.48 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac47…d234backed Cagliari Calcio | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcff1…f8debacked Cagliari Calcio | 18c | 83.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Cagliari Calcio | 18c | 60.59$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.91 | 418 | 54.8%229 W · 189 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Cagliari Calcio (-1.5)this page
- Cagliari Calcio vs. US Lecce: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Cagliari Calcio vs. US Lecce: O/U 1.5Over won
- Cagliari Calcio vs. US Lecce: O/U 2.5Under won
- Cagliari Calcio vs. US Lecce: O/U 3.5Under won
- Cagliari Calcio vs. US Lecce: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.