Fifa International · resolved market
Will Lithuania beat Cyprus?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7f53515a4ca30eecd045f4abe842faa0adcac33aad2a2f0854751ef86e5bcb64
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,432
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,343
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,432 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9fc0…53ddbacked Yes | 29c | 4,310$1,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,250 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.37per pick | 38cpaid | +87.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked No | 71c | 2,830$2,009 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$820.63 | 89 | 55.1%49 W · 40 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b74…a4f4backed Yes | 29c | 1,751$508 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$507.79 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e5d…0734backed No | 73c | 1,663$1,214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$448.9 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca95…fc40backed No | 71c | 1,500$1,065 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$435 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +129.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31cf…8834backed No | 74c | 1,020$755 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.38 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.14per pick | 32cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5553…2567backed Yes | 26c | 613$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.38 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Yes | 28c | 612.5$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.5 | 138 | 26.1%36 W · 102 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -21%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2967…4517backed No | 72c | 612.5$441 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd4a…d59fbacked Yes | 26c | 384.62$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.45per pick | 21cpaid | +385.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x50ef…3abdbacked Yes | 34c | 367.94$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x306b…3ec5backed No | 66c | 362.94$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.4 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x95cc…7f08backed No | 73c | 47.41$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.19per pick | 59cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed No | 71c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 85 | 56.5%48 W · 37 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked No | 70c | 33.33$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Lithuania beat Cyprus?this page
- Will Cyprus beat Lithuania?Yes won
- Will the match between Cyprus and Lithuania end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.