NHL · resolved market
Spread: Senators (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7f71c9c6991963e293916f972cf1095d3ffcd64f73e70ac724f3254b41f3bb8d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Devilsof Senators, Devils
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,587
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,593
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,587 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9165…5b98backed Senators | 36c | 14,561$5,242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,241.58 | 119 | 55.5%66 W · 53 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Devils | 64c | 7,642$4,891 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,751.07 | 881 | 51.2%451 W · 430 L | +10.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e68…d99bbacked Devils | 64c | 3,125$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,125 | 286 | 52.4%150 W · 136 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff80…9b4dbacked Senators | 35c | 2,093$733 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$732.64 | 72 | 58.3%42 W · 30 L | +9.1wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x52b4…34a8backed Devils | 65c | 2,000$1,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$700 | 221 | 50.2%111 W · 110 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Devils | 64c | 1,863$1,192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$670.61 | 1,679 | 54.4%914 W · 765 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Devils | 64c | 469.02$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.85 | 1,143 | 50.8%581 W · 562 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1244…c851backed Devils | 64c | 312$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.32 | 222 | 48.2%107 W · 115 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Devils | 68c | 154.41$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.41 | 811 | 57.2%464 W · 347 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb590…15d3backed Devils | 66c | 149.94$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.98 | 481 | 61.3%295 W · 186 L | +21.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ae7…cf61backed Devils | 68c | 147.5$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.5 | 130 | 60%78 W · 52 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a59…eb2ebacked Devils | 64c | 125$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 376 | 49.7%187 W · 189 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Devils | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17e0…80aebacked Senators | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 327 | 44%144 W · 183 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32eb…0c1bbacked Devils | 65c | 81.54$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.54 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Senators | 34c | 81$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.54 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x740b…1d47backed Devils | 66c | 75.98$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.98 | 75 | 53.3%40 W · 35 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbd…3d15backed Senators | 32c | 63.12$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 244 | 42.6%104 W · 140 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Devils | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 792 | 51.1%405 W · 387 L | +21.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed Senators | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 418 | 47.8%200 W · 218 L | +11.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x042e…f947backed Senators | 32c | 49.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5179…2b29backed Devils | 64c | 37$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.32 | 481 | 49.3%237 W · 244 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Senators | 34c | 37$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.58 | 1,530 | 51.7%791 W · 739 L | +22.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c4a…8e5dbacked Devils | 64c | 37$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.32 | 472 | 49.2%232 W · 240 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41ed…1da9backed Devils | 64c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 295 | 50.2%148 W · 147 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Devils | 68c | 30.88$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.88 | 690 | 61.6%425 W · 265 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ccc…e7e8backed Devils | 64c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 274 | 45.6%125 W · 149 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc0e…0fbdbacked Devils | 64c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 291 | 47.4%138 W · 153 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa97e…7753backed Devils | 64c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 216 | 48.1%104 W · 112 L | -6.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c2d…2570backed Devils | 64c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 175 | 52%91 W · 84 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e4…d6b2backed Devils | 64c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 418 | 51.4%215 W · 203 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Devils | 64c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 605 | 49.3%298 W · 307 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb95e…c6d6backed Devils | 64c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 172 | 49.4%85 W · 87 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa60b…c728backed Devils | 64c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.48 | 264 | 48.9%129 W · 135 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd079…8db3backed Devils | 64c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.48 | 263 | 48.7%128 W · 135 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d58…2073backed Devils | 64c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.48 | 271 | 48.7%132 W · 139 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Senators (-1.5)this page
- Devils vs. SenatorsDevils won
- Devils vs. Senators: O/U 5.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.