Other European Leagues · resolved market
CD Nacional vs. AVS Futebol: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7f79e87bb5115855694da243d8595d28490d10aa178bddce5655cd057f81175f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,847
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,129
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,847 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Under | 23c | 1,252$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.03 | 136 | 26.5%36 W · 100 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ac5…cd3dbacked Under | 47c | 1,064$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28dc…a1f2backed Under | 46c | 948.95$437 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$436.52 | 153 | 61.4%94 W · 59 L | +10.7wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 71c | 943.01$667 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.7 | 7,889 | 45.4%3,579 W · 4,310 L | +11.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c80…93b5backed Over | 61c | 818.82$499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.34 | 149 | 45.6%68 W · 81 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a6…d584backed Over | 57c | 773.88$441 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$332.77 | 100 | 57%57 W · 43 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c84…a8edbacked Under | 49c | 681.96$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335 | 133 | 57.1%76 W · 57 L | +10.3wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8314…0f1ebacked Over | 54c | 500$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230 | 120 | 54.2%65 W · 55 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 52c | 279.41$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.34 | 2,334 | 46.8%1,093 W · 1,241 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed Over | 52c | 239.98$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.19 | 423 | 47.8%202 W · 221 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 26c | 235.63$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.77 | 1,282 | 50.2%644 W · 638 L | -25.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb829…4f5ebacked Under | 6c | 204.26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.26 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Under | 48c | 182$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.36 | 268 | 53.7%144 W · 124 L | +11.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Over | 53c | 176.11$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.55 | 1,113 | 51%568 W · 545 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Over | 60c | 83.63$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.63 | 258 | 59.7%154 W · 104 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked Under | 39c | 74.34$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.03 | 235 | 46.8%110 W · 125 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Under | 42c | 66$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.9 | 225 | 42.7%96 W · 129 L | -11.6wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 57c | 59.66$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.79 | 2,309 | 42.8%988 W · 1,321 L | -41.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked Under | 46c | 43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 163 | 46.6%76 W · 87 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x418b…a741backed Over | 60c | 41.37$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.37 | 278 | 64.4%179 W · 99 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Under | 40c | 39.7$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.88 | 773 | 50.2%388 W · 385 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 78c | 32.05$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 398 | 50%199 W · 199 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Over | 57c | 28.74$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.36 | 218 | 54.1%118 W · 100 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fcb…207cbacked Over | 54c | 28.15$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.03 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +3.3wins | +0.13per pick | 45cpaid | +46.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Under | 39c | 26.75$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 256 | 53.1%136 W · 120 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Over | 53c | 25.74$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.98 | 343 | 58.9%202 W · 141 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Over | 51c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 536 | 55.2%296 W · 240 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 53c | 21.35$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.98 | 911 | 48%437 W · 474 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- CD Nacional vs. AVS Futebol: O/U 2.5this page
- CD Nacional vs. AVS Futebol: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- CD Nacional vs. AVS Futebol: O/U 1.5Over won
- CD Nacional vs. AVS Futebol: O/U 3.5Under won
- CD Nacional vs. AVS Futebol: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.