Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 31°C on August 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7fbb0138f9d8ca4588e8d4277321e0c674d5e06bbc240d86981f0915ce477f15
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,290
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,093
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,290 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 28c | 544.44$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.06 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa12d…4c1bbacked No | 72c | 304.8$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.48 | 202 | 41.1%83 W · 119 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 70c | 275.4$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.02 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 29c | 195.23$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.26 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 30c | 171.42$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 8c | 127.27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3fd6…1733backed Yes | 20c | 99.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 56 | 37.5%21 W · 35 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 26c | 96.87$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.73 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 29c | 96.79$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.2 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 30c | 93.15$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.8 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 71c | 90$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc85b…ba1bbacked No | 67c | 87$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.42 | 190 | 71.6%136 W · 54 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 30c | 83$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.57 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33ab…149bbacked No | 72c | 76.09$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.31 | 205 | 69.8%143 W · 62 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 79c | 75.45$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.74 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 18c | 74.92$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.55 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 75c | 69.95$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.79 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 70c | 69.45$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.85 | 401 | 62.6%251 W · 150 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b6e…5848backed No | 71c | 67.73$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.64 | 241 | 41.1%99 W · 142 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 71c | 59.08$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.87 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 30c | 38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.36 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…9c0ebacked No | 70c | 37.56$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.27 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 68cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed Yes | 29c | 37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 425 | 55.1%234 W · 191 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed No | 71c | 36.56$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.6 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 76c | 34.26$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.32 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3ef2backed No | 73c | 34.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 456 | 75.2%343 W · 113 L | +27.6wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6012…900fbacked No | 73c | 34.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…3f79backed No | 68c | 29.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.53 | 493 | 59%291 W · 202 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba6d…9128backed No | 71c | 27$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.76 | 82 | 51.2%42 W · 40 L | -6.4wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf83e…4663backed No | 71c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 281 | 63.7%179 W · 102 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 79c | 24.13$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.06 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 78c | 21.41$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.74 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked No | 68c | 21.2$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.78 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf1…7cb7backed No | 72c | 19.79$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.54 | 91 | 69.2%63 W · 28 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 72c | 18.68$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.14 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 71c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.97 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 69c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.7 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c80…c3ddbacked No | 69c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.67 | 29 | 75.9%22 W · 7 L | +2.8wins | +0.10per pick | 66cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf2a3…902dbacked No | 77c | 13.17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.07 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -3.4wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 31°C on August 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 28°C on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 29°C on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 30°C on August 15?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 32°C on August 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.