Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 30°C on August 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6d7be9c89543e4c08469eb6c51991759000071b3a69508fdc655465dd6b082a5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,594
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,810
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,594 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7efd…caedbacked No | 46c | 719.71$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.92 | 170 | 25.3%43 W · 127 L | -11.7wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9c…f3a8backed Yes | 50c | 575$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.27 | 602 | 36.5%220 W · 382 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 55c | 482.87$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.82 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 46c | 282.32$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.81 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39b4…fc14backed No | 56c | 250$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 203 | 47.8%97 W · 106 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked Yes | 44c | 208.14$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.56 | 508 | 60.4%307 W · 201 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 53c | 205.12$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.41 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 44c | 204.59$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.62 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 54c | 167.35$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.23 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 49c | 163.64$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.99 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 33c | 159.64$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.39 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 10c | 157.63$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.16 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 21c | 156.17$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.96 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 25c | 151.09$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.32 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe795…99c9backed Yes | 47c | 149.13$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.04 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 69c | 144.52$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.52 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x304b…a619backed No | 56c | 140$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.7 | 275 | 52%143 W · 132 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 57c | 130.75$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.71 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf33c…488cbacked Yes | 40c | 114.5$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.2 | 102 | 44.1%45 W · 57 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa12d…4c1bbacked No | 51c | 110$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.85 | 202 | 41.1%83 W · 119 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed No | 51c | 108.92$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.55 | 471 | 36.5%172 W · 299 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 54c | 102.26$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.92 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2df9…4534backed No | 49c | 101.84$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 257 | 47.5%122 W · 135 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked Yes | 54c | 97$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.93 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5695…60e9backed Yes | 53c | 94.33$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.42 | 192 | 52.1%100 W · 92 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 33c | 80.94$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.71 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5284…27f5backed No | 48c | 80$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 182 | 40.1%73 W · 109 L | -16.6wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 63c | 79.78$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.41 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 75c | 75.19$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.8 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed Yes | 49c | 72$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.68 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 69.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c2…e1e0backed Yes | 52c | 66.16$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.88 | 172 | 51.7%89 W · 83 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 42c | 64.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.3 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb87f…f7d4backed Yes | 44c | 62.44$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.97 | 149 | 57.7%86 W · 63 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 50c | 60.39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.39 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 59c | 57.68$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.75 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe00a…330ebacked Yes | 53c | 57.1$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.1 | 207 | 50.2%104 W · 103 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 45c | 52.93$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.82 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 33c | 51.19$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 51c | 51.08$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.05 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 59c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e2…06f4backed Yes | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 184 | 49.5%91 W · 93 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8958…656dbacked No | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.97 | 59 | 67.8%40 W · 19 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 62cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 43c | 49.95$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.57 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd881…40cdbacked No | 53c | 48.49$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.65 | 72 | 51.4%37 W · 35 L | -6.6wins | -0.09per pick | 60cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 37c | 45.83$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.91 | 401 | 62.6%251 W · 150 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 48c | 43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.42 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x559c…aeedbacked No | 58c | 42$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.36 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x15e9…dacdbacked Yes | 34c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 299 | 48.2%144 W · 155 L | +28.2wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x29ef…dddabacked No | 55c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.87 | 182 | 47.3%86 W · 96 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 52c | 39.4$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.54 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked Yes | 49c | 36.69$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.71 | 420 | 61.2%257 W · 163 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 32c | 36.04$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.41 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed Yes | 54c | 35.71$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.43 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32a7…a84bbacked Yes | 60c | 35.7$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.34 | 207 | 39.1%81 W · 126 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca28…ceb2backed Yes | 55c | 35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.75 | 136 | 37.5%51 W · 85 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…3f79backed No | 56c | 32.1$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.01 | 493 | 59%291 W · 202 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 36c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 60c | 29.03$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.34 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x722e…faddbacked No | 49c | 27.79$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.62 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 65c | 27.16$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.65 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73e0…e538backed Yes | 54c | 27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.42 | 72 | 45.8%33 W · 39 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf83e…4663backed No | 48c | 26.12$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.49 | 281 | 63.7%179 W · 102 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6851…ec54backed Yes | 59c | 26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.76 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…1a00backed No | 57c | 25.24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.38 | 361 | 50.4%182 W · 179 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c30…0ac6backed No | 54c | 25.22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.62 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 51c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.79 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17d2…4142backed No | 56c | 20.58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | -3.9wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 417 | 52%217 W · 200 L | -11.4wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x556b…4e33backed Yes | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 73 | 42.5%31 W · 42 L | -7.1wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfe41…9f23backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | -7.4wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12f5…5ac4backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 112 | 40.2%45 W · 67 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecd9…5565backed Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 133 | 50.4%67 W · 66 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba6d…9128backed Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 82 | 51.2%42 W · 40 L | -6.4wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 80c | 13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 30°C on August 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 28°C on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 29°C on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 31°C on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 32°C on August 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.