Bundesliga · resolved market
Will SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs. FC Schalke 04 end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7ffdfbde8a8faaa2503469e22de689634519d858d85ce035e577badb9eb28228
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,612
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,229
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,612 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x75bd…0288backed Yes | 17c | 1,178$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$977.73 | 96 | 46.9%45 W · 51 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked No | 76c | 757.07$575 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$575.37 | 386 | 46.9%181 W · 205 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Yes | 34c | 719.52$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$477.01 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 29c | 563.06$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$399.45 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 24c | 436.03$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331.38 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 20c | 314$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.76 | 75 | 32%24 W · 51 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6be…b977backed Yes | 24c | 310.45$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.94 | 89 | 50.6%45 W · 44 L | +5.3wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed No | 78c | 267.26$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.95 | 446 | 55.4%247 W · 199 L | +22.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 23c | 134.29$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103 | 762 | 34.8%265 W · 497 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 76c | 120.75$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.77 | 624 | 52.6%328 W · 296 L | -9.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 388 | 45.6%177 W · 211 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8745…4658backed Yes | 62c | 93.55$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.55 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x71ea…1ff9backed No | 76c | 77.28$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 23c | 74.77$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.11 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44b6…98b4backed No | 75c | 66.73$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.77 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -3.2wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 38c | 63.55$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.15 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8405…2163backed Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 181 | 40.3%73 W · 108 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 28c | 48$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.56 | 817 | 32.8%268 W · 549 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc67…5286backed No | 34c | 45.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.44 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +5.2wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +58.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Yes | 66c | 45.4$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.44 | 395 | 58.7%232 W · 163 L | +27.4wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x41ad…8dddbacked No | 27c | 45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Yes | 61c | 44$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.97 | 160 | 46.9%75 W · 85 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 75c | 27.53$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.65 | 569 | 51.8%295 W · 274 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 76c | 23.51$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.87 | 407 | 44.5%181 W · 226 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa209…d90ebacked No | 80c | 23.49$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.79 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -4.1wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked No | 76c | 23.25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.67 | 238 | 42.9%102 W · 136 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x030d…8e95backed No | 80c | 13.56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -4.0wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs. FC Schalke 04 end in a draw?this page
- Will FC Schalke 04 win on 2026-02-28?No won
- Will SpVgg Greuther Fürth win on 2026-02-28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.