Bundesliga · resolved market
Will SpVgg Greuther Fürth win on 2026-02-28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd59e1b2da2c024f6cde517b7b7135605cb8a83e57cfd18bd3d0226e540b73df4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,829
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,598
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,829 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8a92…6941backed No | 50c | 7,117$3,548 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,568.89 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | +9.6wins | +0.18per pick | 38cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 13c | 1,985$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.42 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 17c | 1,523$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.42 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 49c | 1,177$581 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$580.75 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc514…e9b4backed No | 51c | 1,046$534 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$512.68 | 107 | 28%30 W · 77 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe706…89bcbacked No | 55c | 929.7$509 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$421.11 | 118 | 43.2%51 W · 67 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Yes | 50c | 798.58$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.05 | 238 | 42.9%102 W · 136 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75bd…0288backed No | 42c | 690.37$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$402.99 | 96 | 46.9%45 W · 51 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed No | 63c | 625.2$392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.29 | 245 | 41.6%102 W · 143 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12b9…3ec2backed No | 45c | 535$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.6 | 106 | 41.5%44 W · 62 L | +6.2wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Yes | 20c | 532.47$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.17 | 386 | 46.9%181 W · 205 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 19c | 252.7$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.9 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Yes | 28c | 221.61$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.4 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9493…7988backed No | 44c | 200$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…c751backed No | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 57 | 70.2%40 W · 17 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 64cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed Yes | 17c | 192.56$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.7 | 407 | 44.5%181 W · 226 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked No | 47c | 154.07$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.36 | 75 | 32%24 W · 51 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4325…20efbacked Yes | 13c | 127.89$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 80c | 120.75$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.15 | 624 | 52.6%328 W · 296 L | -9.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f02…12f5backed No | 46c | 108.7$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.7 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a0b…c3cbbacked Yes | 62c | 83$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.73 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed No | 80c | 82.65$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.53 | 565 | 47.8%270 W · 295 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6508…1077backed No | 52c | 55$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 73 | 41.1%30 W · 43 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed No | 48c | 38.31$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.08 | 160 | 46.9%75 W · 85 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c21…12bdbacked No | 53c | 29.88$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.11 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0235…472ebacked No | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 35 | 82.9%29 W · 6 L | +8.1wins | +0.23per pick | 60cpaid | +57.7%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 62c | 19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…2622backed Yes | 64c | 16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 194 | 58.2%113 W · 81 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +28%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 79c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.73 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will SpVgg Greuther Fürth win on 2026-02-28?this page
- Will FC Schalke 04 win on 2026-02-28?No won
- Will SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs. FC Schalke 04 end in a draw?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.