Lol · resolved market
Game Handicap: CNV (-1.5) vs CCG Esports (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8015375bc7f1bad2836cc466c234bcb1ed2d29b5954a61a5ce4c3fc48408ac84
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Convictionof Conviction, CCG Esports
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,042
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,436
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,042 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Lol | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x28a3…f681backed CCG Esports | 37c | 1,100$406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$405.98 | 370 | 39.5%146 W · 224 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a1b…722abacked CCG Esports | 48c | 1,020$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$489.79 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe56b…2c03backed CCG Esports | 51c | 1,018$518 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$518 | 109 | 38.5%42 W · 67 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda3a…381fbacked Conviction | 49c | 500$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255 | 1,485 | 50.1%744 W · 741 L | +67.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7462…3ac3backed Conviction | 70c | 428.57$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.57 | 1,007 | 47.9%482 W · 525 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc30…c8a5backed Conviction | 52c | 403.85$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.85 | 808 | 32.9%266 W · 542 L | -43.9wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Conviction | 49c | 399.99$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.99 | 1,207 | 43.5%525 W · 682 L | -14.0wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ce5…a07fbacked Conviction | 52c | 384.62$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.62 | 90 | 60%54 W · 36 L | +10.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +30%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5d5a…4289backed Conviction | 51c | 237$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.13 | 444 | 51.8%230 W · 214 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x581f…9d8ebacked Conviction | 61c | 233.95$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.78 | 170 | 42.9%73 W · 97 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a9e…a24bbacked CCG Esports | 51c | 111.11$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.67 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa877…2e20backed Conviction | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 224 | 52.7%118 W · 106 L | +9.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f43…3a74backed Conviction | 49c | 88.48$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.12 | 584 | 37.2%217 W · 367 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fe9…dc0abacked CCG Esports | 49c | 81.63$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 68 | 57.4%39 W · 29 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf095…58c6backed Conviction | 51c | 78.43$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.43 | 320 | 50%160 W · 160 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Conviction | 56c | 76$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.24 | 1,061 | 54.7%580 W · 481 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09ce…af35backed Conviction | 68c | 75.74$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.14 | 327 | 55.7%182 W · 145 L | +17.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x69b9…a5d5backed Conviction | 69c | 70$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.7 | 272 | 47.8%130 W · 142 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf69…4fa2backed CCG Esports | 31c | 70$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.7 | 760 | 28.9%220 W · 540 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7179…7d79backed Conviction | 52c | 65.38$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.38 | 389 | 45.2%176 W · 213 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Conviction | 51c | 40.12$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.66 | 1,794 | 51.1%917 W · 877 L | +50.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8f…29b9backed Conviction | 52c | 37$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.76 | 73 | 46.6%34 W · 39 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3238…6471backed Conviction | 51c | 32.18$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.77 | 134 | 73.9%99 W · 35 L | +13.8wins | +0.10per pick | 64cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…4003backed Conviction | 70c | 26.46$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.94 | 746 | 37.9%283 W · 463 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Game Handicap: CNV (-1.5) vs CCG Esports (+1.5)this page
- Games Total: O/U 3.5Under won
- Games Total: O/U 4.5Under won
- LoL: CCG Esports vs Conviction (BO5) - North American Challengers League PlayoffsConviction won
- LoL: CCG Esports vs Conviction - Game 1 WinnerConviction won
- LoL: CCG Esports vs Conviction - Game 2 WinnerConviction won
- LoL: CCG Esports vs Conviction - Game 3 WinnerConviction won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.