Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 23°C on April 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8031ea4e2ae4075fac484ec1184d96168f2ba69c556681d1846b4f955313f5a3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,401
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,726
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,401 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 40c | 555.69$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.67 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1348…7037backed Yes | 68c | 411.74$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.65 | 176 | 65.9%116 W · 60 L | +12.7wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…8dbebacked No | 54c | 350.7$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.24 | 134 | 30.6%41 W · 93 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fc7…0a64backed Yes | 77c | 307.49$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.52 | 57 | 77.2%44 W · 13 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 71cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x88e2…d474backed No | 9c | 243.46$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.48 | 166 | 39.2%65 W · 101 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 33c | 193.14$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.09 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes | 34c | 193$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.26 | 395 | 35.4%140 W · 255 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fd1…d384backed Yes | 10c | 169.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.39 | 148 | 6.8%10 W · 138 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 27c | 163.04$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.31 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked No | 66c | 125.19$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.77 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 38c | 120$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.48 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 26c | 119.71$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.03 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2df9…effbbacked No | 71c | 112.73$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.34 | 116 | 59.5%69 W · 47 L | -6.0wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 48c | 99.96$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.35 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x76a6…b7dcbacked No | 72c | 97.25$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.48 | 148 | 34.5%51 W · 97 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 25c | 90.19$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.91 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0dbe…e1d8backed Yes | 33c | 78.09$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.43 | 90 | 48.9%44 W · 46 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 64c | 77.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.55 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 38c | 73.78$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.75 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed Yes | 25c | 68.44$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.33 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 30c | 67.69$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.3 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 48c | 67.27$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.2 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 32c | 63.89$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.56 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdad6…0d14backed Yes | 33c | 62.76$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.14 | 148 | 29.7%44 W · 104 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf31…454abacked No | 66c | 60.56$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.82 | 191 | 52.9%101 W · 90 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaff7…fb8bbacked Yes | 42c | 57.92$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.62 | 513 | 21.2%109 W · 404 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x440c…8dccbacked Yes | 34c | 56.95$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.57 | 96 | 35.4%34 W · 62 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff18…da47backed Yes | 28c | 55.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.3 | 264 | 34.1%90 W · 174 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7deb…7c0abacked Yes | 34c | 54.46$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.06 | 156 | 26.3%41 W · 115 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa336…43f1backed Yes | 36c | 51.94$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.22 | 150 | 47.3%71 W · 79 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a19…3c95backed Yes | 33c | 50.34$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.52 | 428 | 57%244 W · 184 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ee…44a4backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.5 | 113 | 41.6%47 W · 66 L | +7.4wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 31c | 49.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.35 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed Yes | 57c | 48.89$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.09 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x643d…f7ddbacked Yes | 27c | 47.86$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.88 | 68 | 25%17 W · 51 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 34c | 47.8$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.55 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c63…fafebacked Yes | 38c | 37.54$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.12 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 64c | 37.35$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.03 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 59c | 35.75$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.92 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…881ebacked Yes | 41c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.8 | 188 | 42.6%80 W · 108 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73dc…70b2backed Yes | 35c | 29.98$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.49 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +2.8wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d76…89c6backed Yes | 36c | 28.74$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.39 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b96…5f98backed No | 74c | 26.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.68 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cf…7825backed No | 75c | 26.35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 289 | 54.3%157 W · 132 L | -8.1wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9635…ae57backed Yes | 75c | 24.5$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.01 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 45c | 22.37$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.35 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xad5a…e224backed No | 59c | 21.46$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4a3…2fe6backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -3.1wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 63c | 18.35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.56 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…2ea5backed No | 60c | 16.67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 178 | 55.6%99 W · 79 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbac…435fbacked Yes | 68c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.12 | 81 | 53.1%43 W · 38 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 74c | 15.84$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.72 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7515…0f90backed No | 71c | 15.63$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 159 | 54.7%87 W · 72 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x243f…589ebacked No | 71c | 15.08$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.76 | 68 | 66.2%45 W · 23 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 23°C on April 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 21°C on April 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 22°C on April 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 24°C on April 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 25°C on April 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 26°C on April 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 27°C or higher on April 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.