Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 24°C on April 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6fd822ae464de56b19cca1337c6c7c3921b5a7bb2c40ebc23e5cdc8507c18b1d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,692
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,440
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,692 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ca1…17e5backed Yes | 7c | 747.19$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.68 | 153 | 28.1%43 W · 110 L | +10.0wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 42c | 570.31$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.7 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51bb…a919backed No | 76c | 468.27$358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.11 | 53 | 56.6%30 W · 23 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 79c | 324.46$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.86 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 20c | 300.15$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.03 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes | 32c | 237.92$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.53 | 395 | 35.4%140 W · 255 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 18c | 227.68$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.11 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 20c | 182.39$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.28 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 21c | 174.6$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.85 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked No | 71c | 173.06$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.23 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95d4…839abacked Yes | 20c | 132.62$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.08 | 281 | 19.9%56 W · 225 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a99…1838backed No | 69c | 130.4$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.42 | 97 | 70.1%68 W · 29 L | -5.0wins | -0.05per pick | 75cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 19c | 121.5$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.95 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e24…7379backed Yes | 23c | 95.31$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.62 | 456 | 19.1%87 W · 369 L | -11.8wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 39c | 71.94$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.8 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 27c | 66.72$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.04 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0dbe…e1d8backed Yes | 19c | 65.25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 90 | 48.9%44 W · 46 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 22c | 64.58$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.21 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc931…7d46backed No | 75c | 63.31$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.91 | 141 | 58.2%82 W · 59 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 77c | 60$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x440c…8dccbacked Yes | 25c | 58.82$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.43 | 96 | 35.4%34 W · 62 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81a5…3e71backed No | 80c | 51.87$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.37 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 80cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7deb…7c0abacked Yes | 21c | 51.26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 156 | 26.3%41 W · 115 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 27c | 50.44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.38 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ed7…bb28backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 128 | 28.1%36 W · 92 L | +8.5wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7431…be26backed Yes | 29c | 47.51$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.72 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47f7…0312backed No | 80c | 40.5$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 146 | 63%92 W · 54 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91ef…b0f2backed Yes | 30c | 38.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 168 | 32.7%55 W · 113 L | +8.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x08ee…c0cbbacked Yes | 61c | 33.98$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.75 | 77 | 44.2%34 W · 43 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa336…43f1backed Yes | 37c | 33.34$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.26 | 150 | 47.3%71 W · 79 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 78c | 31.56$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9c…f3a8backed No | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 602 | 36.5%220 W · 382 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 75c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.63 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed No | 73c | 29.37$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.94 | 349 | 34.1%119 W · 230 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…881ebacked Yes | 56c | 29.28$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.34 | 188 | 42.6%80 W · 108 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ccd…383bbacked No | 66c | 28.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.78 | 208 | 66.8%139 W · 69 L | +8.9wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3469…984bbacked No | 54c | 26.5$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.19 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcce…65afbacked No | 67c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.15 | 277 | 71.5%198 W · 79 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 59c | 21.53$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.78 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0fe…e62abacked No | 70c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 236 | 77.1%182 W · 54 L | +23.3wins | +0.10per pick | 67cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2df9…effbbacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.3 | 116 | 59.5%69 W · 47 L | -6.0wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e99…9584backed Yes | 54c | 19.56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | +3.7wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 68c | 17.41$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.49 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc7bf…4512backed No | 80c | 14.7$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.94 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 69c | 14.57$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.57 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 24°C on April 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 21°C on April 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 22°C on April 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 23°C on April 11?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 25°C on April 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 26°C on April 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 27°C or higher on April 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.