Asian League · resolved market
Will Avispa Fukuoka win on 2026-05-06?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x805f95840ab0ed43172a3f2195f2cac152f0d6e12d3fe7028ca4dd91db5d893c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,521
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,597
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,521 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Yes | 24c | 1,337$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.85 | 404 | 48%194 W · 210 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc8…f45bbacked Yes | 6c | 419$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed No | 74c | 360.38$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.61 | 1,522 | 54.9%835 W · 687 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Yes | 13c | 348.43$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.02 | 233 | 47.6%111 W · 122 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Yes | 9c | 306$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.07 | 441 | 52.4%231 W · 210 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed No | 71c | 290.97$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.38 | 183 | 53.6%98 W · 85 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41f8…4781backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 80c | 175.46$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.65 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fa…51e5backed Yes | 31c | 106$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.33 | 51 | 45.1%23 W · 28 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e7d…fa81backed No | 73c | 101$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.63 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +3.2wins | +0.16per pick | 49cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 175 | 45.7%80 W · 95 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Yes | 29c | 96.21$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 325 | 60.3%196 W · 129 L | +20.0wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 72c | 80.17$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.15 | 738 | 50.3%371 W · 367 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd464…1c1cbacked Yes | 32c | 65.63$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed No | 70c | 61.83$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.32 | 399 | 54.6%218 W · 181 L | +16.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x89b9…118ebacked No | 69c | 60$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 98 | 59.2%58 W · 40 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed No | 70c | 56.64$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.99 | 139 | 56.1%78 W · 61 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 71c | 50.5$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.65 | 899 | 55.1%495 W · 404 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Yes | 31c | 50.3$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.59 | 543 | 54.9%298 W · 245 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x668d…e471backed No | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 29 | 75.9%22 W · 7 L | +4.6wins | +0.16per pick | 60cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed No | 70c | 45.9$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.63 | 2,491 | 40%997 W · 1,494 L | -18.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 68c | 41.73$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.35 | 1,764 | 50.2%886 W · 878 L | +31.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 68c | 38$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.16 | 1,970 | 54.4%1,071 W · 899 L | +32.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 71c | 32.58$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 1,725 | 50.6%873 W · 852 L | +28.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe697…708fbacked No | 69c | 28.72$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.9 | 241 | 62.2%150 W · 91 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed No | 70c | 23.48$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.13 | 1,221 | 50.2%613 W · 608 L | +12.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb63b…5c51backed No | 72c | 21.84$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.01 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc942…a8a1backed No | 69c | 15.84$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.91 | 8 | 100%8 W · 0 L | +2.2wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Avispa Fukuoka win on 2026-05-06?this page
- Will Avispa Fukuoka vs. Kyōto Sanga FC end in a draw?Yes won
- Will Kyōto Sanga FC win on 2026-05-06?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.