Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Kukuys vs Execration - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x808270b076e66c47756d1a55f6cf5cb569c69bd15c80e65a5d1e848b68ff85b6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Execrationof Kukuys, Execration
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,687
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,623
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,687 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xef26…05babacked Execration | 41c | 5,725$2,323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,401.78 | 254 | 46.1%117 W · 137 L | +11.9wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9024…a444backed Kukuys | 2c | 4,400$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93 | 30 | 0%0 W · 30 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe167…03a1backed Kukuys | 55c | 1,976$1,096 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,096.31 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd161…4cc1backed Kukuys | 59c | 1,366$809 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$808.89 | 804 | 43.9%353 W · 451 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5099…7d87backed Kukuys | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bea…5d50backed Kukuys | 67c | 753.32$505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$505.06 | 477 | 48.6%232 W · 245 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f1f…aa39backed Kukuys | 58c | 700$404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$404.13 | 450 | 61.6%277 W · 173 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82bf…de71backed Kukuys | 67c | 620$417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$417.28 | 547 | 53.6%293 W · 254 L | +22.9wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Execration | 44c | 562.07$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.7 | 738 | 41.7%308 W · 430 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f99…c209backed Kukuys | 50c | 400$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 128 | 51.6%66 W · 62 L | -9.8wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb14…49b2backed Kukuys | 53c | 374.67$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 60 | 43.3%26 W · 34 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x762d…45a6backed Execration | 13c | 329$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.23 | 99 | 55.6%55 W · 44 L | +8.8wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f9…32b1backed Kukuys | 56c | 187.96$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.4 | 312 | 45.8%143 W · 169 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Kukuys | 73c | 186.11$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.72 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ebb…1f99backed Kukuys | 62c | 117.74$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…1e5bbacked Execration | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 186 | 49.5%92 W · 94 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde2a…6bfebacked Execration | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 128 | 32%41 W · 87 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02d7…0c39backed Execration | 49c | 69.98$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.39 | 205 | 30.7%63 W · 142 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadaf…aefdbacked Execration | 62c | 67.42$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.62 | 132 | 38.6%51 W · 81 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x368d…d853backed Execration | 31c | 67.38$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.49 | 615 | 48.8%300 W · 315 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1af1…7b88backed Execration | 80c | 64.13$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.83 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Kukuys | 62c | 61.6$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.06 | 869 | 49%426 W · 443 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2a0…d7a5backed Execration | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf0a…320abacked Execration | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 920 | 56.4%519 W · 401 L | +78.3wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xca6d…492bbacked Execration | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.1 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59e8…b8f7backed Execration | 61c | 32.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 70cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc209…7924backed Kukuys | 58c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 507 | 57.4%291 W · 216 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Execration | 41c | 28.34$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 328 | 6.4%21 W · 307 L | -102.4wins | -0.31per pick | 38cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 18-0.29 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1a…25cebacked Kukuys | 65c | 24.72$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.07 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9f7c…5a30backed Kukuys | 58c | 21.4$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.41 | 95 | 44.2%42 W · 53 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d65…db09backed Execration | 57c | 21.34$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +53.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Kukuys vs Execration - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Kukuys vs Execration (BO3)Execration won
- Dota 2: Kukuys vs Execration - Game 1 WinnerExecration won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.