Tennis · resolved market
Shanghai Rolex Masters: Ugo Humbert vs Holger Rune
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x80887c7ffa9d82b044359ad4804e2a9f77e7bf0a69797cbc7c66f1e32d59a96e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Runeof Humbert, Rune
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,382
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,905
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,382 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd589…27c2backed Humbert | 34c | 3,999$1,350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,349.68 | 92 | 45.7%42 W · 50 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Humbert | 1c | 3,236$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.92 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Rune | 66c | 2,341$1,542 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$799.48 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Humbert | 34c | 2,337$802 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$802.46 | 1,039 | 54.6%567 W · 472 L | +37.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Humbert | 9c | 2,000$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 819 | 38.9%319 W · 500 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b9b…211dbacked Rune | 62c | 1,600$992 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$608 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -2.8wins | -0.13per pick | 61cpaid | -1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x60cc…f0dfbacked Rune | 66c | 1,550$1,023 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$527 | 145 | 49%71 W · 74 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb852…bfaebacked Humbert | 38c | 1,000$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380 | 296 | 34.1%101 W · 195 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Humbert | 35c | 968.43$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.51 | 551 | 43.4%239 W · 312 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…a3c3backed Rune | 65c | 800$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280 | 132 | 53.8%71 W · 61 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f8d…037abacked Humbert | 38c | 797.29$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.47 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.27per pick | 47cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x700f…62d8backed Rune | 65c | 615.38$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.38 | 383 | 48%184 W · 199 L | +7.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe31a…adffbacked Rune | 64c | 500$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 252 | 44.4%112 W · 140 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bee…ca01backed Rune | 64c | 278$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.08 | 120 | 50%60 W · 60 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Humbert | 36c | 257.13$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.57 | 1,655 | 50.1%829 W · 826 L | +30.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7430…3af2backed Humbert | 36c | 206.25$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.25 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87a4…953ebacked Rune | 64c | 200$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 1,056 | 55.4%585 W · 471 L | -22.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…14a3backed Rune | 65c | 153.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.85 | 383 | 56.9%218 W · 165 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf671…3dd7backed Rune | 63c | 150$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.5 | 84 | 59.5%50 W · 34 L | +5.5wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe49c…773ebacked Humbert | 35c | 150$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 54 | 38.9%21 W · 33 L | -4.1wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x58a3…279fbacked Rune | 79c | 142.38$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.9 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Humbert | 36c | 84.85$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.55 | 730 | 48.8%356 W · 374 L | -18.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Rune | 79c | 80$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x868b…1eb0backed Humbert | 23c | 74.62$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 41 | 22%9 W · 32 L | -11.1wins | -0.27per pick | 49cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x7477…ff6ebacked Rune | 65c | 73.15$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.55 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x386d…a920backed Humbert | 36c | 70$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +91.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Humbert | 36c | 56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 1,489 | 32.6%486 W · 1,003 L | +22.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Rune | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 629 | 52.1%328 W · 301 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Rune | 66c | 37.88$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 639 | 42.4%271 W · 368 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25bf…7a56backed Rune | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 2,335 | 46.6%1,088 W · 1,247 L | +55.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc639…c5a2backed Rune | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 69 | 44.9%31 W · 38 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.