Tennis · resolved market
Murcia: Andrea Pellegrino vs Pol Martin Tiffon
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8092e6721274903ece9759f3dae47ccd2c5b7d686f79249222ced50231150fbd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Andrea Pellegrinoof Andrea Pellegrino, Pol Martin Tiffon
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $49,096
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $49,096 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked Pol Martin Tiffon | 14c | 19,141$2,755 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,754.69 | 809 | 38.8%314 W · 495 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x698b…4426backed Pol Martin Tiffon | 38c | 2,238$851 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$850.52 | 724 | 52.6%381 W · 343 L | +34.5wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Andrea Pellegrino | 65c | 2,110$1,365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$745 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Andrea Pellegrino | 62c | 1,814$1,125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$689.32 | 1,658 | 49.9%828 W · 830 L | +7.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab11…0026backed Andrea Pellegrino | 56c | 864.23$483 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$381.51 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Andrea Pellegrino | 68c | 771.83$526 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.21 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Pol Martin Tiffon | 20c | 738.41$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.56 | 1,379 | 16.4%226 W · 1,153 L | -108.5wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xde9f…d43cbacked Andrea Pellegrino | 66c | 651.36$429 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222 | 6,599 | 50.7%3,343 W · 3,256 L | +259.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Pol Martin Tiffon | 33c | 601.1$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.26 | 1,265 | 29.2%370 W · 895 L | -13.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Pol Martin Tiffon | 42c | 594.48$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.99 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Andrea Pellegrino | 61c | 559.58$342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.01 | 1,973 | 46.3%914 W · 1,059 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1e…86d3backed Pol Martin Tiffon | 39c | 424.36$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.5 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Andrea Pellegrino | 74c | 372.7$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.96 | 3,072 | 44.9%1,378 W · 1,694 L | -30.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -23%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x400d…e759backed Andrea Pellegrino | 62c | 353.2$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.22 | 608 | 56.6%344 W · 264 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc3e…776bbacked Andrea Pellegrino | 42c | 300$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.24 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +3.1wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4f…46c2backed Andrea Pellegrino | 62c | 300$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd038…8f51backed Pol Martin Tiffon | 32c | 247.31$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.16 | 4,288 | 40.5%1,737 W · 2,551 L | -139.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6be…b977backed Andrea Pellegrino | 62c | 242.39$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.39 | 1,768 | 43.2%764 W · 1,004 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Pol Martin Tiffon | 39c | 235.4$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.8 | 389 | 31.4%122 W · 267 L | -14.0wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x55af…8407backed Pol Martin Tiffon | 39c | 230.77$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 97 | 43.3%42 W · 55 L | -7.1wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1621…572cbacked Andrea Pellegrino | 60c | 216.67$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.67 | 472 | 52.1%246 W · 226 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8cda…2de5backed Pol Martin Tiffon | 39c | 210.03$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.91 | 61 | 57.4%35 W · 26 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Pol Martin Tiffon | 41c | 188.89$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.03 | 2,761 | 53.9%1,487 W · 1,274 L | +73.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3d…e7ebbacked Pol Martin Tiffon | 12c | 166.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,130 | 27.9%315 W · 815 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf2…d280backed Andrea Pellegrino | 62c | 161.29$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.29 | 658 | 49.4%325 W · 333 L | +8.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d78…a4ccbacked Andrea Pellegrino | 62c | 161.29$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.29 | 330 | 55.8%184 W · 146 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fa7…d4febacked Pol Martin Tiffon | 14c | 160.23$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.91 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Pol Martin Tiffon | 39c | 151.59$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.12 | 466 | 49.8%232 W · 234 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70ac…0c7dbacked Pol Martin Tiffon | 51c | 140.56$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.76 | 2,537 | 53.6%1,361 W · 1,176 L | +61.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x004e…90f8backed Andrea Pellegrino | 59c | 135.59$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.59 | 131 | 46.6%61 W · 70 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1248…8db1backed Pol Martin Tiffon | 40c | 130$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 255 | 46.3%118 W · 137 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa446…d9c6backed Pol Martin Tiffon | 39c | 121.2$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.27 | 153 | 54.2%83 W · 70 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Pol Martin Tiffon | 20c | 119.83$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.84 | 7,816 | 50.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L | +95.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Andrea Pellegrino | 61c | 111.06$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.81 | 2,418 | 51.7%1,249 W · 1,169 L | +10.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Andrea Pellegrino | 53c | 110.58$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.5 | 363 | 33.9%123 W · 240 L | -12.3wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ac…5e19backed Pol Martin Tiffon | 46c | 108.7$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 219 | 57.1%125 W · 94 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64e8…7819backed Andrea Pellegrino | 60c | 105.08$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.03 | 1,882 | 35.5%669 W · 1,213 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Andrea Pellegrino | 61c | 102$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.78 | 2,229 | 45%1,002 W · 1,227 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd68e…8048backed Andrea Pellegrino | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 412 | 72.8%300 W · 112 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58f2…692ebacked Andrea Pellegrino | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 534 | 57.7%308 W · 226 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6723…a540backed Andrea Pellegrino | 62c | 97.87$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.19 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x584d…d358backed Andrea Pellegrino | 67c | 90.91$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 341 | 59.5%203 W · 138 L | -8.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbace…6a61backed Pol Martin Tiffon | 18c | 88.22$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.79 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f3…f7dfbacked Andrea Pellegrino | 61c | 80.56$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.42 | 382 | 68.1%260 W · 122 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x983a…ac6bbacked Andrea Pellegrino | 61c | 80$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.2 | 138 | 47.8%66 W · 72 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Pol Martin Tiffon | 15c | 77.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 2,982 | 39.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L | -109.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Pol Martin Tiffon | 16c | 73.34$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3,270 | 13.8%450 W · 2,820 L | -549.1wins | -0.17per pick | 31cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xca81…f2abbacked Andrea Pellegrino | 60c | 70$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.8 | 147 | 46.3%68 W · 79 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x798e…4df3backed Pol Martin Tiffon | 23c | 63.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -3.3wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb5e…e0f7backed Andrea Pellegrino | 42c | 58$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.64 | 275 | 52%143 W · 132 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x622b…5a4abacked Pol Martin Tiffon | 38c | 54.92$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.87 | 350 | 40.9%143 W · 207 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc539…5ec2backed Pol Martin Tiffon | 47c | 53.19$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 328 | 43.9%144 W · 184 L | -11.0wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb580…9b95backed Andrea Pellegrino | 62c | 53$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.06 | 269 | 41.3%111 W · 158 L | -9.0wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02ea…220cbacked Andrea Pellegrino | 51c | 49.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.02 | 279 | 35.8%100 W · 179 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed Pol Martin Tiffon | 39c | 46$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.94 | 602 | 40.5%244 W · 358 L | -12.2wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaea0…0decbacked Andrea Pellegrino | 65c | 43$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.18 | 970 | 46.6%452 W · 518 L | -8.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1df2…89a0backed Andrea Pellegrino | 56c | 40.05$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.58 | 2,065 | 35.2%727 W · 1,338 L | -52.7wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5da…7f7fbacked Andrea Pellegrino | 77c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3123…b44dbacked Andrea Pellegrino | 62c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 474 | 53.2%252 W · 222 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ba6…2a7ebacked Andrea Pellegrino | 61c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.8 | 56 | 51.8%29 W · 27 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b80…8b39backed Andrea Pellegrino | 70c | 34.29$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.29 | 58 | 58.6%34 W · 24 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbebf…9baebacked Andrea Pellegrino | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 908 | 54.5%495 W · 413 L | +21.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5b…b58bbacked Andrea Pellegrino | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Pol Martin Tiffon | 35c | 29.73$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 619 | 53.3%330 W · 289 L | +18.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd88a…1eefbacked Andrea Pellegrino | 60c | 27$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 544 | 34.2%186 W · 358 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb82a…ef47backed Andrea Pellegrino | 63c | 25.14$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 68cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb15c…c161backed Pol Martin Tiffon | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 103 | 40.8%42 W · 61 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Pol Martin Tiffon | 50c | 24.93$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.56 | 884 | 55%486 W · 398 L | +37.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0466…b3a5backed Andrea Pellegrino | 62c | 24.71$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.31 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Andrea Pellegrino | 61c | 24.65$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.56 | 7,139 | 49.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L | +109.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf58…711fbacked Andrea Pellegrino | 61c | 24.14$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.42 | 131 | 57.3%75 W · 56 L | +7.5wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc798…a8e9backed Andrea Pellegrino | 61c | 22.79$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.89 | 535 | 44.1%236 W · 299 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe658…2c42backed Andrea Pellegrino | 62c | 21.92$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 398 | 42.2%168 W · 230 L | +10.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef1…5acabacked Andrea Pellegrino | 61c | 21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.19 | 1,794 | 60.2%1,080 W · 714 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8f6…4f7fbacked Andrea Pellegrino | 62c | 20.65$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.85 | 341 | 48.1%164 W · 177 L | -7.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe48d…06b5backed Andrea Pellegrino | 56c | 18.27$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.04 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Murcia: Andrea Pellegrino vs Pol Martin Tiffonthis page
- Andrea Pellegrino vs. Pol Martin Tiffon: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
- Set 1 Winner: Pellegrino vs TiffonPellegrino won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.