MLB · resolved market
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x809ef69bb79454c92b99bc5c765706bc89844271e7b9504ef03ba56f2f367770
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Seattle Marinersof Los Angeles Dodgers, Seattle Mariners
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,440
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,339
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,440 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x772b…1840backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 48c | 9,811$4,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,700 | 59 | 35.6%21 W · 38 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Seattle Mariners | 52c | 8,760$4,555 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,204.72 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Seattle Mariners | 16c | 1,451$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,218.63 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Seattle Mariners | 53c | 933.96$495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$438.96 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Seattle Mariners | 36c | 863$311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$552.32 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 73c | 852.02$621 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$621.17 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Seattle Mariners | 48c | 277.22$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.26 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Seattle Mariners | 36c | 205.71$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.87 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x789c…0d10backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 67c | 147.93$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.61 | 287 | 49.5%142 W · 145 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Seattle Mariners | 52c | 132.25$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.48 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17d7…9e1ebacked Seattle Mariners | 38c | 101.05$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.65 | 1,000 | 58.8%588 W · 412 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa349…a5a1backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 66c | 100$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 59cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecae…c544backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 63c | 91.31$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.53 | 554 | 48.2%267 W · 287 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked Seattle Mariners | 37c | 86.3$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.26 | 1,205 | 58.8%708 W · 497 L | +31.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6844…d538backed Seattle Mariners | 16c | 82.9$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.3 | 128 | 57%73 W · 55 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 75c | 79.22$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.32 | 527 | 50.1%264 W · 263 L | +19.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf5…e71cbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 56c | 71.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5dc8…e209backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 43c | 69.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 461 | 52.1%240 W · 221 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc22e…eab8backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 43c | 69.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 488 | 51.6%252 W · 236 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Seattle Mariners | 17c | 67.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.43 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x212b…0ba5backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 536 | 55.8%299 W · 237 L | +22.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29de…d9e6backed Seattle Mariners | 37c | 43.13$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.17 | 552 | 59.6%329 W · 223 L | +11.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ec…e987backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 35c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 613 | 46.3%284 W · 329 L | +7.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Seattle Mariners | 65c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 79c | 34.96$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.54 | 487 | 51.5%251 W · 236 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6cdf…58e1backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 43c | 34.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 462 | 55.8%258 W · 204 L | +21.3wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 78c | 30.77$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.93 | 424 | 51.9%220 W · 204 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 65c | 27.06$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.51 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 58c | 24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.92 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c80…e19bbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 43c | 23.26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 224 | 50%112 W · 112 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 69c | 17.14$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.83 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42c7…c415backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 76c | 15.3$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.69 | 120 | 50.8%61 W · 59 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Seattle Mariners | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 1,464 | 63.5%929 W · 535 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5)this page
- Seattle Mariners vs. Los Angeles DodgersLos Angeles Dodgers won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 10.5Under won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 5.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 6.5Under won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5Under won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-3.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-4.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Seattle Mariners vs. Los Angeles DodgersYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.