MLB · resolved market
Seattle Mariners vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7d63fae88dafd315f488b7183641d9590b4945301005b1feee03742476f0ab1d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $243,970
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $245,955
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $243,970 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1b20…3ab0backed Under | 50c | 200,000$100,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100,000 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +14%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Over | 50c | 159,230$79,615 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79,615.06 | 1,385 | 49.5%685 W · 700 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe558…dcd2backed Over | 50c | 31,585$15,793 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,792.5 | 105 | 47.6%50 W · 55 L | +9.9wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 50c | 17,604$8,734 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,734 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78b0…9f1abacked Under | 50c | 10,028$5,013 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,015.53 | 390 | 47.4%185 W · 205 L | -11.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 29c | 7,670$2,224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,224.3 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca97…49f6backed Under | 50c | 4,974$2,499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,474.88 | 48 | 60.4%29 W · 19 L | +4.2wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…ee8bbacked Over | 50c | 3,500$1,750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,750 | 752 | 48.8%367 W · 385 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 68c | 2,774$1,891 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$882.96 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 50c | 2,285$1,136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,149.24 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 51c | 2,187$1,115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,115.16 | 447 | 49.2%220 W · 227 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x768f…8a9bbacked Under | 52c | 1,546$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$746.46 | 122 | 53.3%65 W · 57 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Under | 50c | 1,365$683 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$682.5 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f2…1848backed Under | 55c | 1,318$725 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$593.1 | 794 | 42.4%337 W · 457 L | -13.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 43c | 1,108$479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$478.86 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4483…c565backed Under | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 257 | 51.8%133 W · 124 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 50c | 712.43$354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$354.09 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8efa…894cbacked Over | 50c | 500$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 454 | 45.2%205 W · 249 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Over | 16c | 415.01$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.34 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 73c | 355.22$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.91 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under | 50c | 350.01$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.71 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Over | 29c | 301.81$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.52 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb01d…46f0backed Under | 51c | 294.12$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.12 | 1,168 | 49%572 W · 596 L | +17.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 23c | 280$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.55 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 30c | 275.71$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.71 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Over | 50c | 255.6$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.76 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 39c | 253.95$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.39 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc22e…eab8backed Over | 50c | 240$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 488 | 51.6%252 W · 236 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x021a…d3aebacked Over | 33c | 220.21$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.67 | 44 | 22.7%10 W · 34 L | -8.6wins | -0.20per pick | 42cpaid | -52%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x212b…0ba5backed Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 536 | 55.8%299 W · 237 L | +22.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb428…74c8backed Under | 51c | 200$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 442 | 45.5%201 W · 241 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5dc8…e209backed Over | 50c | 180$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 461 | 52.1%240 W · 221 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa4f…b174backed Over | 29c | 154.55$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.82 | 407 | 53.3%217 W · 190 L | +9.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cdf…58e1backed Over | 50c | 150$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 462 | 55.8%258 W · 204 L | +21.3wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x70e9…a9d5backed Over | 51c | 143.49$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.18 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 49c | 136$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.36 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Over | 50c | 111.47$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.74 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88fb…db3abacked Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 732 | 43.4%318 W · 414 L | -14.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Over | 50c | 99.32$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1,195 | 50%597 W · 598 L | +5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecae…c544backed Over | 49c | 99$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.51 | 554 | 48.2%267 W · 287 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa23c…ae92backed Over | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 162 | 51.9%84 W · 78 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a87…fb21backed Under | 49c | 90$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.9 | 310 | 52.6%163 W · 147 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0977…53ccbacked Under | 49c | 85.02$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.36 | 292 | 50.7%148 W · 144 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x789c…0d10backed Under | 73c | 67.97$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.35 | 287 | 49.5%142 W · 145 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb3…b370backed Over | 51c | 66.98$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.16 | 195 | 55.9%109 W · 86 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 50c | 66$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3fc2…9c0dbacked Over | 50c | 66$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf655…7f1abacked Over | 49c | 61.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 412 | 36.7%151 W · 261 L | -16.5wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56fa…30cebacked Over | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 233 | 57.5%134 W · 99 L | +22.2wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Under | 48c | 56.62$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.44 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x757c…d1bfbacked Under | 50c | 55.86$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.93 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x467c…614dbacked Under | 57c | 52.72$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.72 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x302b…7a54backed Over | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 42 | 19%8 W · 34 L | -6.3wins | -0.15per pick | 34cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4c1e…befebacked Over | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 285 | 53%151 W · 134 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe481…d138backed Under | 50c | 48.61$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.21 | 882 | 47.7%421 W · 461 L | +3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 49c | 46$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.54 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8d…7688backed Over | 51c | 41.96$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.4 | 241 | 49%118 W · 123 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbcb…65fcbacked Under | 53c | 41.63$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.57 | 118 | 52.5%62 W · 56 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c80…e19bbacked Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 224 | 50%112 W · 112 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cff…6471backed Over | 52c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd934…ab75backed Under | 49c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Over | 29c | 39.93$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.58 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Under | 76c | 34.58$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.3 | 527 | 50.1%264 W · 263 L | +19.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 50c | 33.43$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.71 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b16…1290backed Under | 50c | 33$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 49c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x444d…a5fcbacked Under | 61c | 23.83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.23 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99d4…7c0dbacked Over | 50c | 23.06$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.53 | 289 | 48.1%139 W · 150 L | -11.2wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Under | 73c | 21.8$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.89 | 470 | 56.6%266 W · 204 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Under | 74c | 13.81$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.59 | 487 | 51.5%251 W · 236 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Under | 73c | 13.7$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.7 | 733 | 55.3%405 W · 328 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed Under | 76c | 13.64$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.27 | 424 | 51.9%220 W · 204 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Seattle Mariners vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 9.5this page
- Seattle Mariners vs. Los Angeles DodgersLos Angeles Dodgers won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 10.5Under won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 5.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 6.5Under won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-3.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-4.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Seattle Mariners vs. Los Angeles DodgersYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.