Fifa International · resolved market
Will Azerbaijan vs. Ukraine end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x80c62c791acb22a80cee3d9428374cec42fd25e3991bc59b40fca0abf29b57de
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,240
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,991
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,240 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 33c | 1,923$627 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,296.01 | 4,595 | 40.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L | -91.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 69c | 1,107$766 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$765.88 | 246 | 47.6%117 W · 129 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbdde…c019backed Yes | 61c | 994$604 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$389.66 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +20%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…8464backed Yes | 22c | 909.09$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$709.09 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2934…0b51backed No | 80c | 500$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 274 | 34.3%94 W · 180 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9762…290dbacked Yes | 21c | 476.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$376.19 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.79per pick | 21cpaid | +376.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9259…52dcbacked Yes | 22c | 454.55$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$354.55 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e49…63f2backed Yes | 21c | 400.53$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.42 | 134 | 19.4%26 W · 108 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc97…7d32backed No | 38c | 298.56$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.79 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.22per pick | 50cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 38c | 298$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.45 | 3,696 | 36.9%1,364 W · 2,332 L | -44.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed No | 26c | 215.34$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.37 | 281 | 33.1%93 W · 188 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76dd…59e8backed Yes | 59c | 201.68$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.68 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a31…f2f0backed Yes | 25c | 199.14$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.36 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +37.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac43…4925backed Yes | 60c | 168.07$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.07 | 71 | 38%27 W · 44 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16cb…2704backed Yes | 21c | 118.18$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.36 | 162 | 44.4%72 W · 90 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8721…c2b1backed Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.35per pick | 31cpaid | +117.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4cfb…de50backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +2.6wins | +0.15per pick | 32cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb125…69ebbacked No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 70 | 38.6%27 W · 43 L | +11.0wins | +0.16per pick | 23cpaid | +69%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x0f84…f1c4backed No | 79c | 100$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad87…6a86backed Yes | 34c | 94$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.94 | 89 | 50.6%45 W · 44 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked Yes | 20c | 92$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.6 | 396 | 21%83 W · 313 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2416…1192backed Yes | 22c | 90.68$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.73 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.28per pick | 39cpaid | +89.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1bb1…6bcfbacked No | 66c | 90$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.04 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.4wins | -0.18per pick | 57cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xffb4…f65dbacked Yes | 70c | 67.1$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71f8…55ffbacked No | 47c | 66$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.02 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +291.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56e6…45e9backed No | 80c | 56.11$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.89 | 71 | 60.6%43 W · 28 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Yes | 21c | 48$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.92 | 789 | 27.5%217 W · 572 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7650…141dbacked Yes | 79c | 18.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.99 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Azerbaijan vs. Ukraine end in a draw?this page
- Will Azerbaijan win on 2025-09-09?No won
- Will Ukraine win on 2025-09-09?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.