South American Leagues · resolved market
Will CA Lanús win on 2026-01-29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x80d8c66578fbaa3a6ddfc1964bb79975e3264bdc857c3ccd2866613ef6ece17d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $48,475
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $63,788
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $48,475 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9bc6…ac13backed Yes | 47c | 8,419$3,966 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,452.61 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 55cpaid | +45.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed No | 0c | 6,200$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.76 | 284 | 43%122 W · 162 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80cf…427dbacked Yes | 46c | 6,000$2,760 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,240 | 75 | 52%39 W · 36 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +12%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 54c | 5,186$2,787 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,787.17 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 55c | 4,814$2,638 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,638.14 | 1,985 | 44.8%890 W · 1,095 L | -44.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e2…4e99backed No | 53c | 1,887$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 51 | 33.3%17 W · 34 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed No | 32c | 991.55$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.71 | 91 | 24.2%22 W · 69 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 39c | 724.93$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.4 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 53c | 532$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.53 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8415…dfe1backed No | 53c | 512$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.36 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -3.4wins | -0.15per pick | 47cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked No | 53c | 500.87$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.52 | 816 | 51.6%421 W · 395 L | +12.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44c5…8d45backed No | 9c | 466.48$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.98 | 313 | 49.8%156 W · 157 L | +13.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc23d…82c8backed Yes | 60c | 424$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.28 | 300 | 48%144 W · 156 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 55c | 384.66$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.7 | 1,091 | 55.6%607 W · 484 L | -19.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9020…2cfcbacked Yes | 60c | 333.33$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.33 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…3782backed No | 14c | 308.54$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.76 | 95 | 22.1%21 W · 74 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x850a…e5dbbacked Yes | 39c | 256.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.41 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed Yes | 54c | 253.97$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.35 | 1,366 | 52.4%716 W · 650 L | +51.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9086…4d46backed Yes | 40c | 250$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed No | 56c | 242.25$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.81 | 270 | 50.7%137 W · 133 L | -11.7wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked No | 6c | 234.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.77 | 102 | 36.3%37 W · 65 L | -7.5wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x858d…9d9fbacked Yes | 44c | 200$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12b9…3ec2backed Yes | 50c | 199.79$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.3 | 308 | 41.2%127 W · 181 L | +9.5wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1f…6500backed Yes | 66c | 189$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.03 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed No | 18c | 166.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 1,253 | 56.2%704 W · 549 L | +73.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed No | 53c | 163$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.39 | 179 | 46.9%84 W · 95 L | -8.3wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…6da6backed No | 45c | 156.08$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.51 | 82 | 46.3%38 W · 44 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed No | 40c | 150$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.66 | 106 | 51.9%55 W · 51 L | +7.1wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 61c | 144.91$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.91 | 636 | 44.7%284 W · 352 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc18f…bb01backed Yes | 46c | 110.87$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.87 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.12per pick | 36cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x53ad…5bd4backed Yes | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +3.1wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed No | 54c | 99.99$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 84 | 57.1%48 W · 36 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 50c | 75$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 329 | 36.5%120 W · 209 L | -10.0wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d11…0c08backed Yes | 46c | 54.35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.35 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfd1…2647backed Yes | 37c | 54.19$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.19 | 52 | 36.5%19 W · 33 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70c8…006cbacked Yes | 48c | 52.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.08 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe361…bf48backed Yes | 48c | 35.42$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.42 | 84 | 33.3%28 W · 56 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 54c | 33.44$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.07 | 2,611 | 54.2%1,415 W · 1,196 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d1e…6b94backed Yes | 45c | 33.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.33 | 111 | 40.5%45 W · 66 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4915…60f2backed Yes | 46c | 32.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.61 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +3.2wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe1aa…071abacked No | 55c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7cfe…2fd8backed No | 51c | 23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will CA Lanús win on 2026-01-29?this page
- Will CA Lanús vs. CA Unión end in a draw?No won
- Will CA Unión win on 2026-01-29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.