Tennis · resolved market
HSBC Championships: Nakashima vs. Draper
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x80e4ac7b16c9c7a07921e5a154224356da0192122ad53316829362f65889b293
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Draperof Nakashima, Draper
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,569
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,920
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,569 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5a06…1e43backed Nakashima | 13c | 8,381$1,121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,121 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Nakashima | 17c | 1,897$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.39 | 1,107 | 42.8%474 W · 633 L | -20.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e70…19e8backed Nakashima | 15c | 1,713$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.5 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27a9…8781backed Nakashima | 16c | 1,575$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252 | 154 | 39.6%61 W · 93 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a6f…6b82backed Nakashima | 17c | 1,000$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.65 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97ae…82bdbacked Nakashima | 20c | 1,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 220 | 21.8%48 W · 172 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c17…de2bbacked Nakashima | 40c | 755.57$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 79 | 57%45 W · 34 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96df…4caabacked Draper | 62c | 700$434 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266 | 260 | 39.2%102 W · 158 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Nakashima | 21c | 476.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 639 | 42.4%271 W · 368 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46a6…8c21backed Nakashima | 19c | 399.98$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 72 | 38.9%28 W · 44 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Draper | 61c | 326.21$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.22 | 819 | 38.9%319 W · 500 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x700f…62d8backed Draper | 66c | 304.21$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.21 | 383 | 48%184 W · 199 L | +7.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb46d…7093backed Nakashima | 19c | 292.97$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.97 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 29cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4b5a…7618backed Draper | 61c | 180$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.2 | 253 | 30%76 W · 177 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Nakashima | 16c | 143.83$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.01 | 627 | 42.4%266 W · 361 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8af…4900backed Nakashima | 17c | 100.15$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.37 | 173 | 49.1%85 W · 88 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25bf…7a56backed Draper | 80c | 81.25$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 2,339 | 46.6%1,090 W · 1,249 L | +55.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c72…fa84backed Draper | 79c | 66.99$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.07 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee7d…4eebbacked Draper | 66c | 60$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf442…ccf8backed Nakashima | 39c | 42.26$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.48 | 68 | 32.4%22 W · 46 L | -4.9wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f7…58dbbacked Draper | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 52 | 53.8%28 W · 24 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x36e3…30b5backed Draper | 65c | 22.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.99 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.28per pick | 52cpaid | +53.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea1c…0868backed Draper | 64c | 17.34$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.24 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.