Tennis · resolved market
Japan Open Tennis Championships: Tomas Machac vs Sho Shimabukuro
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x80f295ecff5924cc6b732ce52f7936803a93a2040477a993dbc4870101f8ac1d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Shimabukuroof Machac, Shimabukuro
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,562
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,693
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,562 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Machac | 0c | 13,287$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.29 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Shimabukuro | 62c | 2,138$1,317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$821.03 | 652 | 42.8%279 W · 373 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3257…2f3bbacked Machac | 34c | 2,000$680 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$680 | 443 | 60%266 W · 177 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9354…6502backed Shimabukuro | 58c | 420$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.12 | 755 | 47.8%361 W · 394 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x700f…62d8backed Machac | 50c | 399.21$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 383 | 48%184 W · 199 L | +7.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Shimabukuro | 57c | 297.44$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.8 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Machac | 38c | 219$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.75 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa263…6cf0backed Machac | 26c | 192.31$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 175 | 38.3%67 W · 108 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ba0…ff3abacked Machac | 74c | 135.14$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 431 | 58.2%251 W · 180 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd9…f0d5backed Machac | 77c | 129.87$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 177 | 67.2%119 W · 58 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Shimabukuro | 23c | 129.87$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 281 | 41.6%117 W · 164 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Shimabukuro | 63c | 116.95$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.27 | 731 | 47.9%350 W · 381 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea8…1fbfbacked Shimabukuro | 48c | 92.97$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.49 | 170 | 46.5%79 W · 91 L | +6.8wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74e6…99e8backed Machac | 72c | 88$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.49 | 80 | 61.3%49 W · 31 L | +5.5wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Machac | 77c | 80$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.6 | 629 | 52.1%328 W · 301 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Shimabukuro | 29c | 69$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.99 | 1,489 | 32.6%486 W · 1,003 L | +22.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Machac | 74c | 67.47$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 639 | 42.4%271 W · 368 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb852…bfaebacked Machac | 71c | 66.33$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.1 | 296 | 34.1%101 W · 195 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d4…8d3cbacked Machac | 74c | 50$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 79 | 55.7%44 W · 35 L | -7.5wins | -0.09per pick | 65cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked Shimabukuro | 26c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 85 | 22.4%19 W · 66 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Machac | 71c | 48.97$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.77 | 1,039 | 54.6%567 W · 472 L | +37.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.