Cricket · resolved market
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Mumbai Indians - Who wins the toss?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x81007e6122122836850e0bd88aab6b11fef61924845bbd60a4764ac7bd44ed2b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Mumbai Indiansof Rajasthan Royals, Mumbai Indians
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Cricketevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,192
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,537
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,192 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Cricket is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Cricket | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbb8…bf7fbacked Rajasthan Royals | 3c | 1,017$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.21 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfea8…47aabacked Mumbai Indians | 46c | 1,007$466 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$540.82 | 215 | 40.9%88 W · 127 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac4d…066dbacked Rajasthan Royals | 53c | 366.89$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.36 | 226 | 47.3%107 W · 119 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0734…060abacked Rajasthan Royals | 52c | 351.7$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.58 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.26per pick | 42cpaid | -63.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Rajasthan Royals | 38c | 299.21$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.23 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a9a…b45bbacked Rajasthan Royals | 53c | 183.36$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.18 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda3a…381fbacked Mumbai Indians | 49c | 168.44$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.2 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41c0…165cbacked Mumbai Indians | 51c | 151.32$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.1 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.3wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +87.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xffe1…6d4fbacked Rajasthan Royals | 51c | 105.31$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.18 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25ae…2f20backed Rajasthan Royals | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ab…f0a5backed Mumbai Indians | 48c | 98.75$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.19 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -4.0wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2e99…ffc3backed Rajasthan Royals | 53c | 97.18$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.51 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.16per pick | 56cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5bb3…2c62backed Mumbai Indians | 78c | 95.83$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.48 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x872c…40e0backed Mumbai Indians | 49c | 81.55$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.59 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f9d…ab79backed Rajasthan Royals | 60c | 81.33$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.8 | 61 | 32.8%20 W · 41 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe256…1dd8backed Rajasthan Royals | 55c | 79.09$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.8 | 81 | 38.3%31 W · 50 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -14%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbcbd…5a95backed Rajasthan Royals | 53c | 77.01$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.82 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c24…366abacked Rajasthan Royals | 53c | 74$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.86 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 49cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0213…ae17backed Rajasthan Royals | 53c | 73.34$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.87 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc9c7…7ddebacked Rajasthan Royals | 52c | 55.69$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.14 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x898d…a68ebacked Mumbai Indians | 51c | 47.6$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.33 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f52…b510backed Mumbai Indians | 50c | 38.43$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.02 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2433…99aebacked Mumbai Indians | 50c | 38.24$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.13 | 145 | 27.6%40 W · 105 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee4f…616ebacked Mumbai Indians | 51c | 38.21$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.8 | 27 | 70.4%19 W · 8 L | +6.8wins | +0.25per pick | 45cpaid | +57.2%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x0136…8e5dbacked Rajasthan Royals | 55c | 35.44$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.46 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x974f…cd80backed Mumbai Indians | 49c | 28.75$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.54 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +41.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0494…0cb3backed Rajasthan Royals | 53c | 27.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87bf…a0c8backed Mumbai Indians | 51c | 26.47$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +94.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b48…41bbbacked Rajasthan Royals | 48c | 25.71$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.46 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef46…f872backed Rajasthan Royals | 49c | 25.12$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.31 | 154 | 51.3%79 W · 75 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…c182backed Mumbai Indians | 51c | 23.57$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.43 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Rajasthan Royals | 49c | 21.23$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 34 | 73.5%25 W · 9 L | +5.4wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +21%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa5f0…dcb8backed Rajasthan Royals | 55c | 20.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc87a…f8fdbacked Rajasthan Royals | 55c | 20.64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x783c…f863backed Mumbai Indians | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa6…0c6cbacked Rajasthan Royals | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Cricket and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Mumbai Indians - Who wins the toss?this page
- Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Mumbai IndiansRajasthan Royals won
- Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Mumbai Indians - Completed match?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.