World Politics · resolved market
Will Mexico beat USA?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x81008411ef024120a50634b57025fd2bc72df8b1c012a0bca96f839f1cbc5e1f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,322
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,229
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,322 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked No | 50c | 826.9$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410.23 | 140 | 33.6%47 W · 93 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…715cbacked Yes | 48c | 735.42$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$385.42 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +118.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56de…bc32backed No | 54c | 685.84$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$371.95 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4294…ee29backed Yes | 46c | 319.78$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.68 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -14%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5308…3221backed No | 52c | 285.31$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.36 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200e…d146backed Yes | 51c | 277.22$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +98%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb27e…1961backed Yes | 77c | 241.76$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71cd…912dbacked No | 22c | 221.99$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.84 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b60…6e88backed Yes | 50c | 209.42$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +101.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4919…0c56backed No | 54c | 209.26$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd120…cf59backed Yes | 51c | 196.04$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d7a…15b5backed Yes | 53c | 184.81$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Yes | 46c | 159.78$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.88 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +4.8wins | +0.12per pick | 36cpaid | +18%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed No | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -3.2wins | -0.11per pick | 58cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1266…cd8cbacked No | 50c | 99.98$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc681…14cbbacked Yes | 48c | 98.9$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.43 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x851b…1b79backed Yes | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50fd…b583backed Yes | 49c | 62.7$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed Yes | 65c | 58.95$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.9 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7e…4562backed No | 52c | 55$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.6 | 50 | 36%18 W · 32 L | -3.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3168…6734backed No | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b55…02f8backed No | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Mexico beat USA?this page
- Will USA beat Mexico?No won
- Will the match between Mexico and USA end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.