Commodities · resolved market
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,650 Week of May 4 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8129a9e2d5c3f6f104a488508b7ce136985c52bb5d67ad1d618d429419706f90
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,695
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,809
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,695 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbfe2…8c49backed No | 60c | 500.16$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 67 | 61.2%41 W · 26 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33e9…9b2abacked No | 52c | 230$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9397…c551backed Yes | 48c | 227.31$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +107.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4009…ef9bbacked Yes | 48c | 159.62$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +109.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdac5…ae24backed Yes | 65c | 151.46$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.03 | 198 | 55.6%110 W · 88 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 30c | 102$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.4 | 1,051 | 34.7%365 W · 686 L | -93.4wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f7…a69ebacked Yes | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x782f…bda7backed No | 55c | 85.6$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.22per pick | 41cpaid | +94%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d00…e1e0backed Yes | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.5wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x649f…fd8dbacked Yes | 45c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -44%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46af…d445backed Yes | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f3a…3b17backed Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.32 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 40c | 45.59$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.35 | 942 | 40.2%379 W · 563 L | -69.1wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x53a3…e5afbacked No | 44c | 40.58$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.94 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | +3.8wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x07d1…8ffabacked Yes | 30c | 40.11$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.1 | 199 | 23.1%46 W · 153 L | +12.5wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 37c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 186 | 37.6%70 W · 116 L | -9.3wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4eb6…5517backed Yes | 45c | 36.36$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf85…d62ebacked Yes | 37c | 32.68$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.68 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | -3.6wins | -0.13per pick | 31cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 38c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 273 | 22%60 W · 213 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f05…8b8bbacked No | 68c | 28.56$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.42 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 66c | 22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.47 | 162 | 76.5%124 W · 38 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 73cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,650 Week of May 4 2026?this page
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,700 Week of May 4 2026?Yes won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,750 Week of May 4 2026?Yes won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,800 Week of May 4 2026?No won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,850 Week of May 4 2026?No won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,300 Week of May 4 2026?No won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,350 Week of May 4 2026?No won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,400 Week of May 4 2026?No won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,450 Week of May 4 2026?No won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,500 Week of May 4 2026?No won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,550 Week of May 4 2026?Yes won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,600 Week of May 4 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.