Weather · resolved market
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 20°C on May 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x815d28fe55bb4ef431262ca814dccba2cbe582174001a8ade5b7ff1be2ec468a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,092
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,943
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,092 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3d3c…15edbacked No | 68c | 267.11$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.41 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +10.5wins | +0.23per pick | 36cpaid | +67%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 14c | 200$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 52c | 195.31$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.24 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d58…17a9backed Yes | 14c | 172.94$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.21 | 165 | 30.9%51 W · 114 L | +10.0wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x488c…8c1cbacked Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 375 | 32.8%123 W · 252 L | +36.4wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +109.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1fea…5685backed No | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +3.4wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9010…df3ebacked Yes | 74c | 60.61$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.84 | 141 | 44%62 W · 79 L | +9.0wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 23c | 47.48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 605 | 23.3%141 W · 464 L | -21.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01bc…6c9fbacked Yes | 46c | 44.67$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.62 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb26…0e22backed Yes | 60c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.1 | 391 | 57%223 W · 168 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2e…c9e1backed No | 36c | 39.61$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.35 | 204 | 31.9%65 W · 139 L | -14.5wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1250…4444backed Yes | 27c | 37.37$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 97 | 28.9%28 W · 69 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40b0…f139backed Yes | 59c | 35$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 297 | 40.7%121 W · 176 L | +11.4wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b6b…19e7backed No | 52c | 25.37$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes | 44c | 24.46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f5e…75a4backed Yes | 47c | 22.56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.9wins | -0.18per pick | 56cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x77bd…e48fbacked Yes | 51c | 21.7$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 209 | 28.7%60 W · 149 L | -45.3wins | -0.22per pick | 50cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 28-0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8e…05a4backed Yes | 73c | 17.55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.86 | 430 | 50.2%216 W · 214 L | +21.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbe60…c2f7backed Yes | 70c | 17.31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.08 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76b3…7d44backed No | 79c | 13.59$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.91 | 184 | 49.5%91 W · 93 L | -16.7wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 20°C on May 5?this page
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 19°C on May 5?Yes won
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 21°C on May 5?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 22°C on May 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.