Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will AEK win on 2025-12-11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x81ae879d1f8e21f5c67318ae69530072ea385bdeff46843a8ece35fd430a1a40
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,605
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,590
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,605 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 1c | 3,418$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.35 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 80c | 1,535$1,227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,226.92 | 848 | 50.8%431 W · 417 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd371…4478backed No | 20c | 615.69$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.14 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.33per pick | 43cpaid | +50%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 13c | 412.08$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$357.71 | 428 | 44.9%192 W · 236 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Yes | 69c | 371.36$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.94 | 741 | 55.9%414 W · 327 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Yes | 14c | 340.86$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.14 | 522 | 43.9%229 W · 293 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ad…fabcbacked Yes | 80c | 312.4$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.57 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0469…2f00backed Yes | 80c | 312.29$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.46 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x823d…3d44backed Yes | 12c | 244.44$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.44 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +52.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a05…0329backed Yes | 13c | 153.84$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.84 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -3.4wins | -0.19per pick | 35cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9b…829ebacked Yes | 28c | 142.86$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.86 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0613…4d1cbacked Yes | 37c | 135.14$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.14 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.5wins | +0.18per pick | 46cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1a4c…8138backed Yes | 36c | 131.22$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.98 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f19…b9ffbacked No | 64c | 129$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.56 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 36c | 129$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.56 | 199 | 34.7%69 W · 130 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d33…e208backed Yes | 37c | 121.62$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.62 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | +3.6wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0c7…49babacked Yes | 11c | 102.7$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.89per pick | 11cpaid | +833.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1488…0672backed Yes | 36c | 79$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.56 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed No | 64c | 72$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.08 | 338 | 47%159 W · 179 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89ba…e9adbacked Yes | 42c | 60.35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.95 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 60c | 57.01$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.2 | 449 | 52.6%236 W · 213 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bf9…c31cbacked Yes | 37c | 54.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.62 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 38cpaid | +63.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 64c | 52$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.28 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6738…13eebacked Yes | 40c | 50.43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.43 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2382…4628backed No | 61c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 68c | 43.53$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 351 | 58.1%204 W · 147 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf10e…631ebacked Yes | 37c | 40.54$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.54 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3517…9f8dbacked No | 64c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.25per pick | 62cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9d30…2645backed Yes | 36c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.6 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab2e…8b4bbacked No | 64c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb957…d44fbacked Yes | 47c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.2 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +88.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8358…956bbacked No | 64c | 39$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.96 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f1…23eebacked No | 63c | 29.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 142 | 33.1%47 W · 95 L | -9.2wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d9…a94bbacked No | 64c | 28$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.92 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fec…8dc3backed Yes | 36c | 28$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.92 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.6wins | +0.33per pick | 54cpaid | +60%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcba1…f8febacked Yes | 48c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +106.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb29…ea29backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed No | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x148d…9001backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4c46…3614backed No | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 71cpaid | -22%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will AEK win on 2025-12-11?this page
- Will Samsunspor vs. AEK end in a draw?No won
- Will Samsunspor win on 2025-12-11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.