Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will Samsunspor win on 2025-12-11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x222551c6620c19231f3d91654644be329de509749c389f426469af9bbe170d28
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $51,645
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $52,331
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $51,645 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Yes | 36c | 35,000$12,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,600 | 212 | 37.3%79 W · 133 L | -11.1wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -23%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc16b…8404backed No | 64c | 20,000$12,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,200 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb230…4193backed No | 64c | 14,480$9,267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,212.74 | 92 | 65.2%60 W · 32 L | +6.1wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 77c | 2,215$1,697 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$517.42 | 848 | 50.8%431 W · 417 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 36c | 1,952$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$699.62 | 199 | 34.7%69 W · 130 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00dd…7faabacked Yes | 34c | 1,627$553 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$553.18 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 19c | 1,220$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.24 | 428 | 44.9%192 W · 236 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63e7…c2d9backed No | 66c | 1,200$792 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$408 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.38per pick | 37cpaid | +104.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 64c | 1,018$655 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$363.27 | 351 | 58.1%204 W · 147 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e76…771dbacked Yes | 35c | 995$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348.25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc96b…6e3abacked Yes | 35c | 920$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91a4…2a56backed Yes | 35c | 870$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d3…f2bcbacked No | 65c | 799.99$516 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.99 | 83 | 45.8%38 W · 45 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed No | 64c | 762.87$488 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.63 | 65 | 58.5%38 W · 27 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d00…45a4backed Yes | 35c | 733$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.55 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed No | 45c | 690.61$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380.88 | 55 | 18.2%10 W · 45 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8088…959cbacked Yes | 35c | 653$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.55 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e98…fb58backed Yes | 35c | 567$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44d0…443abacked No | 65c | 562$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.7 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10ec…0dcfbacked No | 65c | 495$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.25 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x064b…0996backed No | 65c | 460$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b12…c3c1backed No | 65c | 460$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f3d…16b1backed No | 65c | 433$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.55 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a2…a0b3backed No | 66c | 427$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x823d…3d44backed Yes | 25c | 411.96$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +52.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x703e…ca29backed No | 65c | 375$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2784…c374backed No | 65c | 375$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.25 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc86…f1a6backed No | 65c | 358$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.3 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14b3…926bbacked No | 65c | 348$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b4b…774fbacked No | 65c | 323$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0a0…35cdbacked Yes | 63c | 317.46$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e2…c86fbacked Yes | 32c | 317.45$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36cb…bdcdbacked No | 65c | 305$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xece2…0c61backed Yes | 6c | 300$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.67 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 42c | 287.9$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.49 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b50…6c06backed No | 65c | 244$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d56…d1b1backed Yes | 36c | 200$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf18b…51b9backed No | 65c | 198.46$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.46 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.17per pick | 63cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes | 6c | 175$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 80 | 27.5%22 W · 58 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed No | 65c | 159.81$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.66 | 75 | 50.7%38 W · 37 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad18…0b4fbacked No | 39c | 129.01$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.01 | 62 | 41.9%26 W · 36 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked No | 64c | 127.82$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.02 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd28e…a78fbacked Yes | 36c | 125$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed No | 64c | 124.67$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.15 | 116 | 44%51 W · 65 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed No | 70c | 118.41$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.6 | 741 | 55.9%414 W · 327 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddca…239abacked Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 32c | 93.58$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.49 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x470e…07c0backed Yes | 35c | 87$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.45 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2a…2280backed Yes | 36c | 81.25$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf142…57e7backed Yes | 33c | 81.04$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.74 | 200 | 50%100 W · 100 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b4a…b153backed Yes | 62c | 80.65$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x215b…3e6cbacked No | 68c | 78.13$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.14per pick | 50cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a0e…9036backed Yes | 32c | 78.13$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79df…1661backed Yes | 36c | 69.44$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 81 | 38.3%31 W · 50 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1677…1126backed No | 63c | 66.14$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.47 | 158 | 46.8%74 W · 84 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68e1…cc69backed Yes | 35c | 59.91$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.97 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 22cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98cd…9417backed Yes | 36c | 56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6738…13eebacked Yes | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x454b…5b8bbacked No | 69c | 51$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.81 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc07d…5bd8backed No | 67c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x521c…64d2backed No | 65c | 33$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.55 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7488…a835backed Yes | 67c | 32.63$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5913…3bbebacked Yes | 64c | 30.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.74 | 107 | 61.7%66 W · 41 L | +7.0wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf21a…0751backed No | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.16per pick | 65cpaid | +33%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Yes | 36c | 28$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 379 | 26.1%99 W · 280 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed No | 64c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 338 | 47%159 W · 179 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab0…8383backed No | 65c | 24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6882…6f08backed Yes | 66c | 21.21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…5c00backed No | 65c | 20.88$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.31 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4408…1b6abacked No | 68c | 20.53$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.52 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd47…8277backed Yes | 56c | 19.58$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -3.4wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x426a…128bbacked No | 53c | 19.37$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.01 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcad…0a68backed No | 53c | 19.37$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.01 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe4b…fa4cbacked No | 64c | 17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.12 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +52.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c1…090dbacked No | 64c | 17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.12 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +71.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…4936backed No | 65c | 15.62$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.47 | 122 | 58.2%71 W · 51 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b5…6a22backed No | 66c | 15.38$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.23 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Samsunspor win on 2025-12-11?this page
- Will AEK win on 2025-12-11?Yes won
- Will Samsunspor vs. AEK end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.