Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will Samsunspor vs. AEK end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x82da72b9c504467ec99c5a40fa5948d2f40fc85eaf24507650e82d20c70e09a4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,804
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,980
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,804 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 74c | 1,453$1,080 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$373.4 | 848 | 50.8%431 W · 417 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 26c | 805.76$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.23 | 428 | 44.9%192 W · 236 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad18…0b4fbacked Yes | 30c | 333.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 62 | 41.9%26 W · 36 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0aa3…64e9backed No | 69c | 290$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.9 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -4.3wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -37%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 31c | 285$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.35 | 199 | 34.7%69 W · 130 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 26c | 275$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.46 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x823d…3d44backed Yes | 30c | 233.33$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +52.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda70…828bbacked Yes | 26c | 230.77$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +4.1wins | +0.14per pick | 38cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 70c | 185.99$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.8 | 318 | 49.4%157 W · 161 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e00…eb46backed No | 71c | 178.66$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.81 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed No | 76c | 151.14$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.95 | 522 | 43.9%229 W · 293 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 71c | 147.67$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.24 | 351 | 58.1%204 W · 147 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa49…949ebacked Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.19per pick | 47cpaid | +51.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd53…a861backed No | 71c | 88$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.52 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06f4…758dbacked Yes | 29c | 86$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.94 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 274 | 37.2%102 W · 172 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7567…0923backed Yes | 29c | 62$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.98 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79df…1661backed Yes | 19c | 51.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 81 | 38.3%31 W · 50 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d9f…0852backed No | 76c | 39.47$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.47 | 37 | 81.1%30 W · 7 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 74cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Yes | 28c | 36$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 379 | 26.1%99 W · 280 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e53…58e1backed No | 72c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 19 | 78.9%15 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 69cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a17…5524backed No | 72c | 22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.16 | 18 | 94.4%17 W · 1 L | +3.5wins | +0.20per pick | 75cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdee3…7b2ebacked No | 71c | 22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.38 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x370a…cccebacked No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 74cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04a1…6b2dbacked No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc157…bd5cbacked No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc55…9f7cbacked No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e26…c672backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x888b…8f3fbacked No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84f8…667fbacked No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 74cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc39b…5754backed No | 71c | 19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.51 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00c0…4523backed No | 71c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.64 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 56cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed No | 70c | 14.6$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.38 | 741 | 55.9%414 W · 327 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Samsunspor vs. AEK end in a draw?this page
- Will AEK win on 2025-12-11?Yes won
- Will Samsunspor win on 2025-12-11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.