Bundesliga · resolved market
Will SG Dynamo Dresden win on 2025-12-12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x81e9e72b9e0a814a129cb619588ab78480ffcaace1eb645d88bacf4ec39f4313
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $47,032
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $56,300
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $47,032 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Yes | 43c | 20,128$8,655 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,655.2 | 94 | 55.3%52 W · 42 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed No | 57c | 20,000$11,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,600 | 114 | 45.6%52 W · 62 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Yes | 43c | 4,444$1,911 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,910.92 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 77c | 1,454$1,123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331.62 | 569 | 51.8%295 W · 274 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed No | 59c | 1,284$761 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$522.79 | 511 | 36.8%188 W · 323 L | -28.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed No | 57c | 1,104$627 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$476.36 | 447 | 49.4%221 W · 226 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ae5…f51dbacked Yes | 42c | 1,000$419 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$419.45 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 62c | 964.46$601 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$363.18 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7705…a442backed Yes | 43c | 875.4$378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$377.98 | 158 | 29.1%46 W · 112 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 72c | 721.54$519 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.13 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa7b7…0adbbacked No | 57c | 719.98$410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.59 | 61 | 54.1%33 W · 28 L | +5.0wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x873a…2066backed Yes | 4c | 701.07$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.46 | 133 | 32.3%43 W · 90 L | -5.4wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -37%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd538…317cbacked Yes | 28c | 695.52$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.75 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 30cpaid | +56.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83c1…32f7backed Yes | 29c | 525.11$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.53 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed No | 70c | 497.47$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.9 | 195 | 44.6%87 W · 108 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33a7…960dbacked Yes | 25c | 439.83$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.84 | 116 | 30.2%35 W · 81 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6036…d2ccbacked Yes | 43c | 349.96$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.48 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcca…c460backed Yes | 42c | 238.91$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.34 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa87b…968bbacked Yes | 13c | 234.24$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 78 | 25.6%20 W · 58 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41ce…6509backed Yes | 44c | 227.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7f6…5ac8backed Yes | 31c | 158.76$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | -4.2wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0bf9…c31cbacked Yes | 38c | 146.46$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f4…67a4backed Yes | 44c | 136.36$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb327…0fccbacked Yes | 43c | 115.12$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdedc…8bcabacked Yes | 44c | 100.48$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.21 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked No | 57c | 100$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 135 | 55.6%75 W · 60 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…f1ccbacked Yes | 44c | 90.91$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 179 | 30.2%54 W · 125 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf477…7a3ebacked Yes | 32c | 78.13$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a23…97a7backed Yes | 42c | 75.45$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.69 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +61.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13f9…3ab4backed Yes | 45c | 66.87$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…11a2backed Yes | 27c | 55.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 190 | 55.3%105 W · 85 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0501…61ecbacked Yes | 42c | 47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.74 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.15per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe406…4cc1backed Yes | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -3.3wins | -0.30per pick | 48cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcb66…3272backed Yes | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad28…770cbacked Yes | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fdd…7245backed Yes | 44c | 35.5$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.62 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb11a…023cbacked Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffac…d469backed Yes | 44c | 27.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 60 | 35%21 W · 39 L | -6.4wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb3…c770backed No | 57c | 17.69$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.61 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will SG Dynamo Dresden win on 2025-12-12?this page
- Will Eintracht Braunschweig win on 2025-12-12?Yes won
- Will SG Dynamo Dresden vs. Eintracht Braunschweig end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.