Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C on August 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x81f003d380dccae688894d43c43c3bf57f7033b81cef60fd5ee4629e250dd04f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,862
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,222
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,862 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 26c | 434.95$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$323.24 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 7c | 336.04$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.34 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 75c | 228.6$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.42 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 42c | 150.46$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.51 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 72c | 146.15$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.43 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 76c | 135.76$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.77 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes | 28c | 124.21$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.5 | 543 | 35%190 W · 353 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 73c | 123.39$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.08 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 72c | 112.71$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.07 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 26c | 109.62$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.47 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x956c…1c6ebacked No | 37c | 107.62$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.99 | 60 | 45%27 W · 33 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9484…a173backed Yes | 54c | 104.72$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.41 | 130 | 25.4%33 W · 97 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc179…5cdebacked Yes | 54c | 93.37$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.37 | 289 | 46%133 W · 156 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1461…b97ebacked No | 55c | 92.91$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.26 | 280 | 35.4%99 W · 181 L | -69.3wins | -0.25per pick | 60cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 25-0.23 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 27c | 84.5$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.41 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 72c | 76$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.72 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes | 33c | 67$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.89 | 547 | 35.5%194 W · 353 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 51c | 65.71$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.21 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef61…2ee6backed Yes | 27c | 63.03$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.24 | 335 | 50.4%169 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 32c | 60$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.61 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8e7b…717ebacked Yes | 80c | 57.61$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.61 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 72c | 55.38$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.99 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 72c | 50$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 76c | 48.39$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.66 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 76c | 48$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.48 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 27c | 41.75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.34 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 74c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce5…6233backed No | 73c | 40$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.2 | 135 | 59.3%80 W · 55 L | -7.8wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa016…67c2backed No | 73c | 36.96$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 511 | 56.6%289 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 32c | 36.03$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa01d…3c10backed Yes | 35c | 34.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.47 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +54.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 66c | 32$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.12 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 65c | 30.95$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.95 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 72c | 27.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.91 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 72c | 24.39$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.65 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 64c | 24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.36 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 74c | 23.01$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed Yes | 75c | 23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.86 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 68c | 22.16$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.07 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb701…8c1bbacked No | 71c | 21.03$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 120 | 70.8%85 W · 35 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 55c | 20.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0558…a8cdbacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 118 | 67.8%80 W · 38 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d1f…8c58backed No | 76c | 16.05$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.28 | 180 | 38.9%70 W · 110 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 75c | 15.89$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Yes | 73c | 14.54$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.97 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C on August 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 31°C on August 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 32°C on August 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 33°C on August 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on August 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.