Tennis · resolved market
Set 1 Winner: Muller vs Navone
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8216a4ad37613d19bdf64ae86b0895eeb563eca36c85b40ea85a83ff01624b98
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Navoneof Muller, Navone
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,223
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,306
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,223 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd575…e017backed Navone | 43c | 3,159$1,361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,797.9 | 63 | 54%34 W · 29 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Muller | 49c | 1,568$763 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$763.28 | 8,828 | 36.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L | -193.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde0f…ddd3backed Navone | 59c | 1,430$850 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$580.48 | 104 | 37.5%39 W · 65 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Muller | 60c | 1,000$596 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$595.91 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Muller | 57c | 846$486 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$486.45 | 4,602 | 48.3%2,223 W · 2,379 L | +34.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Muller | 35c | 514.44$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.05 | 4,921 | 38.7%1,905 W · 3,016 L | -20.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked Navone | 54c | 499.99$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230 | 364 | 40.9%149 W · 215 L | -13.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c79…ddf6backed Navone | 60c | 292.7$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.08 | 122 | 42.6%52 W · 70 L | -18.8wins | -0.15per pick | 58cpaid | -27%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Muller | 59c | 250.47$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.52 | 5,416 | 48.6%2,633 W · 2,783 L | +14.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26fb…67b8backed Navone | 75c | 202.53$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.63 | 651 | 57.1%372 W · 279 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Muller | 25c | 202.53$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.63 | 2,375 | 51.1%1,213 W · 1,162 L | +8.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Navone | 46c | 200$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 4,765 | 47%2,238 W · 2,527 L | -82.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2be…af12backed Muller | 54c | 190$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.6 | 2,032 | 46.9%952 W · 1,080 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Navone | 65c | 162.19$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.22 | 2,417 | 50.7%1,226 W · 1,191 L | +78.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x253f…4253backed Muller | 41c | 136.9$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.13 | 92 | 48.9%45 W · 47 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf545…4036backed Navone | 47c | 125.53$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.53 | 300 | 43.7%131 W · 169 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31e7…fe2abacked Navone | 44c | 102.27$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.27 | 1,356 | 38.3%520 W · 836 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Muller | 57c | 100$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 4,426 | 51.8%2,291 W · 2,135 L | +136.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Navone | 80c | 97.05$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.41 | 6,449 | 46.3%2,987 W · 3,462 L | -42.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe368…e9edbacked Navone | 29c | 53.28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.83 | 374 | 36.4%136 W · 238 L | -16.2wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc547…c570backed Muller | 54c | 51.85$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 678 | 38.3%260 W · 418 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaa1…d5dabacked Navone | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 519 | 42.6%221 W · 298 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dde…30b1backed Muller | 56c | 29.47$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.63 | 829 | 58.1%482 W · 347 L | +17.5wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe121…84dabacked Navone | 74c | 20.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 33 | 75.8%25 W · 8 L | +3.2wins | +0.10per pick | 66cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x91ac…5ff3backed Muller | 58c | 17.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 601 | 41.1%247 W · 354 L | -11.4wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set 1 Winner: Muller vs Navonethis page
- Generali Open: Alexandre Muller vs Mariano NavoneMariano Navone won
- Muller vs. Navone: Match O/U 21.5Under won
- Set Handicap: Navone (-1.5) vs Muller (+1.5)Navone won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.