College Football · resolved market
North Texas vs. Western Michigan
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x821d1100f204b2fe98ad57bd2683bc3d953ff4ee9e11606afee4e815928c2ed2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- North Texasof North Texas, Western Michigan
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,850
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,531
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,850 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x481b…74c1backed North Texas | 40c | 3,679$1,472 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,207.13 | 237 | 51.1%121 W · 116 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Western Michigan | 24c | 1,436$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.58 | 818 | 47.9%392 W · 426 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked North Texas | 77c | 1,167$893 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.92 | 292 | 49%143 W · 149 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x328e…dc42backed Western Michigan | 59c | 1,090$639 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$639.1 | 58 | 44.8%26 W · 32 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27f2…702cbacked Western Michigan | 70c | 1,009$706 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$706.11 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.9wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1642…5988backed Western Michigan | 56c | 768.86$431 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430.56 | 118 | 55.9%66 W · 52 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked North Texas | 76c | 743$565 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.32 | 503 | 58.1%292 W · 211 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Western Michigan | 48c | 687$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.44 | 632 | 43.7%276 W · 356 L | +34.8wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +138.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Western Michigan | 23c | 596$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.08 | 71 | 23.9%17 W · 54 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed North Texas | 53c | 428.38$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.65 | 553 | 50.3%278 W · 275 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Western Michigan | 53c | 385.65$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.7 | 494 | 43.7%216 W · 278 L | -9.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf72…a19fbacked Western Michigan | 59c | 338.98$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61af…aa01backed North Texas | 80c | 300$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.34 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked North Texas | 75c | 279.17$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.55 | 492 | 53.5%263 W · 229 L | +7.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x197f…dc8dbacked North Texas | 55c | 244.41$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.5 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Western Michigan | 22c | 236$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.51 | 571 | 44.7%255 W · 316 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4d…168cbacked Western Michigan | 25c | 199.63$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.88 | 102 | 42.2%43 W · 59 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Western Michigan | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 398 | 47.7%190 W · 208 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed North Texas | 53c | 167.58$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.23 | 648 | 41.2%267 W · 381 L | +12.4wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Western Michigan | 22c | 90.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | +3.2wins | +0.10per pick | 21cpaid | +136.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Western Michigan | 57c | 90$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.22 | 305 | 48.9%149 W · 156 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Western Michigan | 61c | 69.84$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.92 | 862 | 43.7%377 W · 485 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e62…1e28backed North Texas | 77c | 64.94$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.94 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb579…f458backed Western Michigan | 23c | 52.17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 126 | 41.3%52 W · 74 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fe6…ab9dbacked North Texas | 42c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 54 | 38.9%21 W · 33 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a4f…c4f2backed Western Michigan | 58c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa867…85f1backed Western Michigan | 46c | 43.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde50…ca66backed Western Michigan | 70c | 15.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 72cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5163…b5b6backed North Texas | 77c | 14.29$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- North Texas vs. Western Michiganthis page
- Spread: North Texas (-9.5)Western Michigan won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.