Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x822ef8836d1e30dfa43d1155f83198160135d8edaf1fde48eb594b17d55ff922
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,885
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,686
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,885 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 1c | 909.11$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.72 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98d1…019abacked Yes | 17c | 338.36$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.17 | 255 | 36.9%94 W · 161 L | +17.3wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcc09…88edbacked Yes | 7c | 240.11$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.94 | 566 | 27.7%157 W · 409 L | +17.8wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf23…0d5dbacked Yes | 9c | 230$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.4 | 66 | 34.8%23 W · 43 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 9c | 219.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e53…14e7backed Yes | 21c | 215.79$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 150 | 27.3%41 W · 109 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes | 12c | 205.19$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.21 | 349 | 18.9%66 W · 283 L | +18.7wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 10c | 189.1$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.91 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61f7…f8debacked Yes | 5c | 186.4$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 287 | 42.5%122 W · 165 L | +24.3wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 19c | 182.45$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.66 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 10c | 177.62$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.07 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed54…4967backed Yes | 25c | 163.36$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.27 | 498 | 54.6%272 W · 226 L | +46.4wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 9c | 150$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 11c | 140.76$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.15 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacb7…2ebbbacked Yes | 16c | 139.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.8 | 95 | 48.4%46 W · 49 L | +5.1wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 16c | 129.22$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.67 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xba95…ec86backed Yes | 19c | 108.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -2.7wins | -0.14per pick | 24cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 12c | 101.86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7da0…ca1ebacked Yes | 11c | 87.32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed Yes | 18c | 77$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 489 | 19.2%94 W · 395 L | -38.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 76c | 71.67$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 75c | 71.55$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.55 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed5b…5caebacked Yes | 21c | 66.67$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebed…7d9cbacked Yes | 21c | 59.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.27 | 134 | 30.6%41 W · 93 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 77c | 51.08$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.95 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea1a…bf1abacked Yes | 24c | 50.95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.47 | 73 | 31.5%23 W · 50 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bcc…8d7ebacked Yes | 21c | 49.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 58 | 29.3%17 W · 41 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked Yes | 25c | 42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 435 | 59.8%260 W · 175 L | +20.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd84…0fe5backed No | 73c | 24.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 515 | 68%350 W · 165 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4179…cceebacked No | 79c | 23.52$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.94 | 429 | 76.5%328 W · 101 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43fd…59d3backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 159 | 61.6%98 W · 61 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4eab…2caabacked No | 77c | 19.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.49 | 445 | 67%298 W · 147 L | +17.6wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4606…7f19backed No | 79c | 19.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.09 | 116 | 64.7%75 W · 41 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 75c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.75 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc176…5d01backed No | 79c | 18.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.99 | 104 | 63.5%66 W · 38 L | +6.1wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x194b…2a11backed No | 77c | 18.17$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.19 | 288 | 66.3%191 W · 97 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 79c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.73 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 26?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.