Fifa International · resolved market
Brazil vs. France: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x823d11b45478e7ac5c4c0c94301b42fa8bf048347bc1eae6f36d77a5793be1f1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,626
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,849
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,626 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0273…1867backed Over | 17c | 1,167$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 193 | 17.1%33 W · 160 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 17c | 951.01$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.04 | 368 | 50.3%185 W · 183 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Over | 18c | 949.02$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.82 | 143 | 23.8%34 W · 109 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -28%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Over | 17c | 514.45$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.33 | 2,380 | 53.3%1,269 W · 1,111 L | +76.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked Over | 15c | 323.74$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 112 | 21.4%24 W · 88 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a61…bbb2backed Over | 17c | 294.12$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9759…cb52backed Over | 17c | 294.12$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 100 | 13%13 W · 87 L | -9.1wins | -0.09per pick | 22cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xae37…5a8fbacked Under | 77c | 283.14$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1861…0743backed Over | 23c | 283.14$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 17c | 252.94$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 308 | 36%111 W · 197 L | -17.3wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Over | 13c | 243.98$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.97 | 2,411 | 53%1,278 W · 1,133 L | +75.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c6…0e27backed Under | 77c | 223.09$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.31 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf9a…a50ebacked Over | 23c | 223.09$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fa…d81bbacked Over | 23c | 178.77$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…9a2bbacked Under | 77c | 178.77$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 11c | 113.86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.46 | 4,457 | 37.2%1,657 W · 2,800 L | +31.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc645…3822backed Over | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -32%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 19c | 86.9$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.51 | 876 | 51.1%448 W · 428 L | +25.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf294…7967backed Over | 16c | 66.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.69 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Brazil vs. France: O/U 4.5this page
- Brazil vs. France: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Brazil vs. France: O/U 1.5Over won
- Brazil vs. France: O/U 2.5Over won
- Brazil vs. France: O/U 3.5Under won
- Spread: Brazil (-1.5)France won
- Spread: Brazil (-2.5)France won
- Spread: France (-1.5)Brazil won
- Spread: France (-2.5)Brazil won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.