Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on June 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x824d1634f7ce16a2f49a8dc672077dd573ea310e5b78e0f3dd9f9d2e72f48df5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,561
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,471
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,561 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8882…03fbbacked Yes | 28c | 185.56$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.62 | 517 | 33.3%172 W · 345 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 15c | 147.25$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.74 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6664…1891backed Yes | 76c | 131.39$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.39 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.19per pick | 65cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…bf91backed Yes | 24c | 126.72$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.35 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 22c | 110.63$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.36 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac24…576ebacked Yes | 43c | 109.82$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.89 | 233 | 34.3%80 W · 153 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 13c | 102$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.07 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 37c | 85.11$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.6 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36bb…6bd8backed Yes | 39c | 82.03$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.04 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +5.6wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +52.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e4…b4dabacked No | 79c | 72.71$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.67 | 45 | 71.1%32 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 79c | 71.96$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.17 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5e…40fbbacked Yes | 73c | 68$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.36 | 335 | 61.5%206 W · 129 L | -22.2wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb619…91e2backed Yes | 19c | 62.06$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.24 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed No | 76c | 60$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.5 | 481 | 49.5%238 W · 243 L | -26.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x947a…cd42backed Yes | 25c | 59.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.23 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +3.5wins | +0.16per pick | 38cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 39c | 57.06$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.31 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 66c | 56.15$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.89 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x865d…47aabacked Yes | 21c | 52.05$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.25 | 164 | 32.9%54 W · 110 L | +12.7wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 38c | 51.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.69 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb8…0d00backed Yes | 49c | 50.49$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.74 | 206 | 62.1%128 W · 78 L | -14.0wins | -0.07per pick | 69cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.04 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 24c | 49.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.99 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 50c | 49$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.52 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 73c | 46$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.59 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 78c | 42.49$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.29 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2e…c9e1backed No | 34c | 41.91$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 204 | 31.9%65 W · 139 L | -14.5wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked Yes | 25c | 39.6$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.6 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 61c | 38$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.17 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 77c | 36.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.43 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d47…10b4backed No | 45c | 32.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.73 | 223 | 44.8%100 W · 123 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 70c | 32.43$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.72 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1118…bba7backed Yes | 66c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.46 | 20 | 80%16 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 75cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 53c | 28.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0x5b06…9d38backed Yes | 55c | 27.46$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +83.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 39c | 26.52$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5157…fdbcbacked No | 61c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 533 | 53.1%283 W · 250 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 61c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b08…ab3ebacked Yes | 73c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.86 | 116 | 50%58 W · 58 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed No | 76c | 16.34$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15b7…4cdebacked No | 75c | 15.8$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 86 | 61.6%53 W · 33 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on June 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on June 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on June 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C on June 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 20°C on June 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 21°C on June 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.